Joe Lunardi projects San Diego State as lone Mountain West team in 2026 NCAA Tournament

Lunardi has the Aztecs earning the autobid from the Mountain West in 2026

San Diego State Aztecs guard BJ Davis. | Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

Fall is upon us, and in less than six weeks, college basketball will be back on campuses across the country.

With rosters (mostly) set and teams beginning practice this week, Joe Lunardi of ESPN released his updated bracketology report, projecting the entire 68-team field for the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

Brian Dutcher and the San Diego State Aztecs were projected to earn a 10-seed by Lunardi, where they would take on the 7-seed Missouri Tigers in Buffalo as part of the East Region.

Joining the Aztecs in the Buffalo pod are 2-seed Michigan and 15-seed Youngstown State, with the other top five teams in the region including Duke (1), Iowa State (3), Auburn (4), and Kansas (5). North Carolina, which San Diego State lost to last year in a play-in game, earned a No. 6 seed.

San Diego State stumbled last year, tying for fourth place in the Mountain West with a 14-6 conference record. The Aztecs then lost to Boise State in the conference tournament and were one of the last teams to make the Field of 68, getting beaten badly by the Tar Heels in Dayton.

Mar 18, 2025; Dayton, OH, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels forward Jae'Lyn Withers (24) shoots the ball defended by San Diego State Aztecs forward Magoon Gwath (0) in the second half at UD Arena. | Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

However, most analysts believe the team had an exceptional offseason, managing to keep star guard Miles Byrd and high upside big man Magoon Gwath from pursuing greener pastures in the NBA or in the transfer portal. The Aztecs also retained guard Reese Dixon-Waters, who sat out all of last year with a foot injury, as well as key reserves Pharoah Compton, BJ Davis, and Taj DeGourville, while bringing in elite passer Sean Newman Jr from Louisiana via the transfer portal.

This has San Diego State projected as a borderline top 25 team by some outlets, including Jon Rothstein, who has them No. 29 in his top 45.

Lunardi doesn't agree, and in fact seems to be quite low on any non-power conference teams. Despite the Mountain West getting four or more programs in the NCAA Tournament in each of the past four seasons, Lunardi has San Diego State as the lone representative from the conference in 2026. He also has just one team — Gonzaga — from the WCC, and does not have a single non-power conference earning more than one bid in his updated projections.

SDSU will have opportunities to prove it deserves a higher seed, squaring off against a handful of projected NCAA Tournament teams in its non-conference slate. That includes the aforementioned Michigan (2-seed), as well as Arizona (3-seed), Oregon (7-seed), and Utah Valley (13-seed).