San Diego State drops out of ESPN’s Field of 68 in latest Bracketology

Home loss to Grand Canyon drops Aztecs into First Four Out

San Diego State Aztecs forward Pharaoh Compton (5). | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

The San Diego State Aztecs are finding out first-hand what life on the NCAA Tournament bubble is like.

The Aztecs are once again out of the Field of 68, dropping from holding the final spot in the Field of 68 to No. 70 in the First Four Out in Friday morning’s ESPN Bracketology projections.

The drop came three days after a 73-63 home loss to Grand Canyon that cost the Aztecs a share of first place in the Mountain West. 

It was also a Quad 2 loss, further damaging an already fragile resume and bolstering the scenario that the Aztecs’ only way into March Madness is to win the MW tournament and claim the automatic berth.

“The Aztecs seemed to be building momentum after three straight wins over Wyoming, Air Force and Nevada, but Tuesday's loss to Grand Canyon at home took a toll on their consensus at-large chances (which fell from 65% to 37%),” Lunardi wrote.

“In the big picture, they're still one of the bubbliest of bubble teams, sitting 44th nationally in the résumé ranking. The conference could also feasibly send three teams to the tournament — it hasn't fallen below that threshold in five seasons — and with a fairly sizable gap in at-large chances over the next-best Mountain West team (Boise State at 6%), San Diego State might get in regardless. But, should the Mountain West get only two, as many of the current projections call for, New Mexico might have the edge right now.”

SDSU (18-7, 12-3) has five games left in the regular season, including three Quad 1 opportunities. Saturday’s game at Colorado State is a Quad 2 opportunity as the Aztecs look for a season sweep. Tipoff is at 3 p.m. and the game will air on CBS Sports Network.

The Aztecs are one game behind MW leader Utah State. The Aggies beat the Aztecs 71-66 at Logan on Jan. 31 and the teams meet again at Viejas Arena on Wednesday night. 

Lunardi continues to project Utah State as the MW’s automatic qualifier and has lifted them one seed line to No. 7 and moved them back into the South Region, with a projected first-round date against No. 10 Texas A&M in Oklahoma City.

New Mexico is holding fast in the Last Four Out, sitting one spot behind the Aztecs. 

The Aztecs were the unanimous preseason pick to win the MW regular-season title in their final season in the league before moving into the Pac-12 along with Utah State, Boise State, Fresno State and Colorado State. 

The Aztecs dropped to No. 44 in the NCAA NET Rankings, which are used by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee as the primary sorting tool for selection and seeding for March Madness.