San Diego State enters Mountain West tournament needing title to reach March Madness

Rebounding, bench play will be keys for Aztecs to earn NCAA Tournament bid

San Diego State Aztecs guard Elzie Harrington (3). | Photo courtesy of San Diego State University Athletics

The San Diego State Aztecs know the drill for this week in Las Vegas: run the table in their final Mountain West tournament or miss March Madness for the first time in six seasons. 

They certainly can’t count on an at-large berth if they don’t cut down the nets at the Thomas & Mack Center on Saturday afternoon.

Their bubble almost certainly burst during a late-season swoon that included four losses in five games. ESPN bracket guru Joe Lunardi reported Tuesday that the Aztecs have just a 17% chance at an at-large berth, and are one of the teams most vulnerable to bid thieves during other conference tournaments. 

The Aztecs did get the No. 2 seed and a bye into the quarterfinals on Thursday, where they’ll face the winner of the No. 7 Colorado State-No. 10 Fresno State game.

“This conference is about survival. You have to survive to get a bye,” coach Brian Dutcher said Tuesday. “And now that we have the bye, we have to take advantage of it.”

Tipoff for the Aztecs (20-10, 14-6 MW) on Thursday will be at 6 p.m., with the game airing on CBS Sports Network.

The big picture

There have been seasons when the Aztecs had a strong enough resume that they could rely on an at-large berth if they didn’t win the conference tourney. 

Dutcher likens this season to 2017-18, his first year in charge after succeeding Steve Fisher. The Aztecs swept through the MW tourney to claim the automatic bid before losing to Houston in the NCAA Tournament’s first round. 

“It’s more of a feeling of my first year, you know, where we had a win to go and we found a way to do it,” Dutcher said. 

The difference was, the Aztecs won six straight games going into the tourney that season. This year they’ve won just two of six, with losses to two teams they could face this week in Vegas, but also with a home blowout win against regular-season champion Utah State. 

“You know, I don't want to say never say never. If we can make it to the finals, there could still be an outside chance of an at-large bid, but we have to go with the intention of winning the event,” Dutcher said. “That’s what our plan is. And we know it'll be hard-fought because this league has had great parity this year.

“Obviously, we’ve beaten everybody in the league with the exception of Grand Canyon and we've lost to a fair share of them. So, we know how competitive this league is.”

Possible matchups

Colorado State is favored by 6.5 points against Fresno State. The Rams stunned the Aztecs 83-74 at Fort Collins on Feb. 21 after the Aztecs beat the Rams by 23 at Viejas Arena on Jan. 28. Colorado State had won eight straight games before losing its regular-season finale to Boise State, which has won five straight games. 

SDSU beat Fresno State 71-52 at Viejas Arena on Jan. 10 in the only matchup between the teams this season. 

If SDSU wins the quarterfinal, it could face New Mexico, which will face the Boise State-San Jose State winner. New Mexico beat the Aztecs 81-76 at The Pit on Feb. 28 to split the season series. Boise State manhandled the Aztecs 86-77 on the road last week, two months after pushing the Aztecs to three overtimes in Viejas Arena on Jan. 3 before SDSU prevailed 110-107.

The other bracket includes No. 1 Utah State, which split with the Aztecs, and No. 4 Grand Canyon, which swept SDSU.

Keys to winning

The Aztecs were outrebounded a whopping 37-15 in the loss at Boise State. They bounced back by outrebounding UNLV 33-30 in a home win Saturday night. 

“We have to rebound better,” Dutcher said. “You know, I think we get a lot of initial stops and then the teams that do a good job on the offensive glass, those second chance opportunities have cost us. So, we rebounded uh pretty even with Vegas and got the win. You know, had they had a 10-rebound advantage, we probably wouldn't have escaped with a victory. So, we have to rebound the ball at a higher level if we plan on winning in the Mountain West tournament.”

Depth will also be a factor. 

Dutcher has used an 11-man rotation this year, which raised some questions on whether he was trying to keep too many players happy.

Big man Magoon Gwath has been a shell of himself due to injuries. On the flip side, BJ Davis, a second-team All-MW pick, has been huge off the bench. 

Dutcher said he’ll be relying on Davis, Taj DeGourville and Pharoh Compton off the bench. 

“These guys are all really producing at a high level,” Dutcher said. “So, I'm going to continue to ride the bench and hopefully that will be a strength of ours as we have to hopefully play three games in three days.”