San Diego State falls further from NCAA Tournament field in latest Bracketology

Aztecs sitting eight spots out of the Field of 68 in Lunardi’s projections

San Diego State Aztecs guard BJ Davis (10). | Photo courtesy of San Diego State University Athletics

The San Diego State Aztecs and their fans have been on an NCAA Tournament bubble rollercoaster for the last several weeks as they’ve gone in and out of the Field of 68 in Joe Lunardi’s ESPN Bracketology. 

Now that it’s Mountain West tournament week, it’s even clearer that the only way the Aztecs can assure a sixth straight trip to March Madness is to win three games in three days in Las Vegas and claim the automatic bid. Then they can exhale, hoist the trophy and cut down the nets. 

If they don’t win their final MW tourney before bouncing into the Pac-12, their hopes for an at-large berth are grim, at best. 

Lunardi has the Aztecs at the bottom of the Next Four Out in his Tuesday projections, sitting eight spots below the cut line at No. 76.

That’s only because they pulled out an 89-86 win against UNLV in their home finale on Friday night. Before that, they had lost four of five games, including two straight Quad 1 chances.

Remarkably, they were still in the running for a share of the MW on Saturday before Utah State beat New Mexico to claim the outright title and the No. 1 seed in the conference tournament. 

SDSU (20-10, 14-6 MW) nabbed the No. 2 seed and a bye into the quarterfinals on Thursday. The Aztecs will play the winner of Wednesday night’s first-round game between No. 7 Colorado State and No. 10 Fresno State. 

Lunardi spelled it out for the Aztecs on Saturday.

“As the Aztecs seemingly slid out of the bubble picture with losses in four of five games, they recovered some to outlast UNLV in the regular-season finale on Friday.

“Despite the win, their consensus at-large chances are just 17%, and their No. 54 ranking nationally on the résumé list would put them on the wrong side of the bubble right now. On the positive side, the Mountain West hasn't sent fewer than three teams to the tournament in five seasons, and New Mexico's résumé is little better than SDSU's. The Aztecs are one of the teams most vulnerable to a bid thief during conference tournaments.”

The Aztecs have dropped to No. 47 in the NCAA NET Rankings, which are used by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee as the primary sorting tool for selection and seeding for March Madness.

Lunardi still has Utah State as the MW’s auto-bid team, as the No. 8 seed in the South Region, with a projected first-round matchup with No. 9 TCU in Tampa. 

New Mexico dropped to the last spot in the First Four Out at No. 72 after losing at Utah State. 

Scouting report

If Colorado State beats Fresno State, the Aztecs can use revenge as a motivator to get their tourney jump-started. 

One of the Aztecs’ several head-scratching losses this season was at Colorado State on Feb. 21, when they dropped an 83-74 decision to a Rams team that was then in eighth place. It was the same Rams team that lost 73-50 at Viejas Arena on Jan. 28. 

SDSU faced Fresno State just once this season, winning 71-52 at Viejas Arena on Jan. 10. 

The Aztecs’ game Thursday will tip off at 6 p.m. and air on CBS Sports Network.