San Diego State falls out of NCAA Tournament field after third loss in four games

Aztecs fall back into First Four Out in latest Bracketology

San Diego State Aztecs forward Magoon Gwath (0). | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

When it comes to NCAA Bracketology, the San Diego State Aztecs’ must feel like a popular hamburger chain.

In-n-Out. 

Four days after ESPN bracket expert Joe Lunardi moved the Aztecs off the bubble and back into the NCAA Tournament’s Field of 64, he dropped them back down into the First Four Out. 

So, in and then out.

It’s actually been happening a lot over the last few weeks for the Aztecs, who have had an underwhelming season after being picked as the unanimous choice to win the regular-season title in their final year in the Mountain West.

The Aztecs are No. 70, which isn’t good when 68 teams make the field. They have only themselves to blame after losing three of their last four games, including Saturday’s 81-76 loss at New Mexico.

On Friday, Lunardi had the Aztecs as the MW’s auto-bid team, since it held a tiebreaker with Utah State after routing the Aggies at Viejas Arena two nights earlier. They were projected as the No. 11 seed in the West Region, with a first-round date against former MW rival BYU in Portland.

Now they’re out again. The loss at New Mexico was costly because the Aztecs had control of their destiny. They can still win the regular-season title, but need to win at Boise State on Tuesday night and at home on Saturday night against UNLV in the regular-season final, and then get help elsewhere.

San Diego State is one of three teams that still have the chance to win the regular season title and it has earned a bye into the quarterfinal round of the tournament for the ninth straight year and 26th time in 27 seasons. 

The other teams with a shot are Utah State, which sits atop the standings at 14-4, and New Mexico, which is tied with the Aztecs at 13-5.

New Mexico visits Utah State in a season finale on Saturday that will have a big impact on who wins the title. 

SDSU’s resume for earning an at-large berth has been on shaky ground all season, and was seriously damaged two weeks ago by losses at home to Grand Canyon and on the road to Colorado State, both Quad 2 games.

Tuesday night’s game at BSU is a Quad 1 opportunity. But for what it’s worth, the Aztecs are just 2-5 in Quad 1 games. They remain No. 44 in the NCAA NET Rankings, which are used by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee as the primary sorting tool for selection and seeding for March Madness.

SDSU’s best bet to assure a trip to March Madness for the sixth straight season is to win the MW tournament in Las Vegas and claim the automatic bid. That requires winning three games in as many days, and perhaps a third showdown against the Aggies, who beat the Aztecs 71-66 in Logan on Jan. 31 before falling 89-72 to the Aztecs in San Diego on Feb. 25.

Lunardi has reinstated Utah State as the MW’s auto-bid team, as the No. 7 seed in the South and a first-round game against No. 10 UCLA in Tampa.

New Mexico has moved from the First Four Out at No. 70 back into the Last Four In at No. 67. Lunardi has the Lobos in a First Four matchup with Indiana, with the winner getting the No. 11 seed in the Midwest and a first-round date with No. 6 North Carolina in Oklahoma City. 

Tuesday night’s game tips off at 6 p.m. PT and will air on CBS Sports Network.