San Diego State inching toward NCAA Tournament, per latest ESPN bracketology report

The Aztecs are off to a 5-0 start in Mountain West play

Dec 20, 2025; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; San Diego State Aztecs guard Miles Byrd (21) against the Arizona Wildcats during the Hall of Fame Series at Mortgage Matchup Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Brian Dutcher and the San Diego State Aztecs came into the 2025-26 season with sky-high expectations. The return of projected NBA draft picks Miles Byrd and Magoon Gwath, along with a healthy Reese Waters, had many labeling the Aztecs as frontrunners in the Mountain West conference and a near lock to make the NCAA Tournament.

However, a rocky 3-3 start to the year - which included a 2OT home loss to Troy and a 40-point drubbing at the hands of Michigan - pushed SDSU out of the NCAA Tournament picture for the rest of the non-conference slate, with the team's best wins coming against a mediocre Oregon team and Utah Valley.

Dutcher's team has found its stride lately, though, starting conference play with a pristine 5-0 record, which included an epic 3OT win over Boise State as well as a road victory over a very solid Nevada team.

Now the Aztecs sit at 11-4 overall and 5-0 in MWC play, and Joe Lunardi - ESPN's resident bracketologist - has taken notice.

Lunardi moved San Diego State into the 'next four out' category in his latest March Madness projections, behind Oklahoma State and ahead of Stanford and Virginia Tech. That puts the Aztecs five spots away from grabbing an at-large bid in the 2026 NCAA Tournament, with TCU, Creighton, LSU, and Baylor listed as the first four out.

The Mountain West currently has just two teams projected in the field, with Utah State - the projected automatic qualifier - earning a No. 7 seed in the West region, where they line up against No. 10 seed USC. New Mexico, which is 4-1 in league play and 13-3 overall, is Lunardi's last team in the field, squaring off against UCLA as a No. 12 seed in a play-in game.

Dec 20, 2025; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Wildcats forward Tobe Awaka (30) defends against San Diego State Aztecs guard Taj DeGourville (24) during the Hall of Fame Series at Mortgage Matchup Center.s | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Just two teams from the MWC would be the conference's fewest since 2021, when only San Diego State and Utah State went dancing. Since then the league has had four teams three separate times in 2022, 2023, and 2025, and had a record six teams in 2024.

Three of SDSU's non-conference opponents are projected in the field of 68, including a pair of No. 1 seeds in Arizona and Michigan, as well as No. 12 seed Utah Valley - the projected winner of the WAC.

San Diego State travels to Laramie to take on Wyoming on Wednesday, Jan. 14, looking for win No. 6 in league play. The game will tip off at 5:00 PM PT and will be broadcast on the CBS Sports Network.