San Diego State’s March Madness outlook takes a hit in ESPN Bracketology

Aztecs move into First Four Out territory despite bounceback win

San Diego State Aztecs guard Taj DeGourville (24). | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Despite a rebound win, the San Diego State Aztecs dropped out of the NCAA Tournament projections altogether in the latest ESPN Bracketology.

Bracket expert Joe Lunardi dropped the Aztecs from a projected First Four appearance into the First Four Out in his Friday update. 

The Aztecs are listed as 70, and you don’t have to be a math major to know that’s not good when the entire bracket has 68 teams. 

San Diego State continues to share the Mountain West lead with Utah State in the two schools’ final season in the Mountain West. But with a shaky resume due to a rough showing in the non-conference schedule, the Aztecs need to be laser focused on winning the conference tournament to snag the MW’s automatic berth in March Madness.

Lunardi continues to project Utah State as the MW’s automatic qualifier. In his Friday update, he moved the Aggies up one seed line and all the way across the country, putting them at No. 8 in the West with a projected first-round date with No. 9 Indiana. 

That game would be in SDSU’s Viejas Arena, with the winner moving on to face the winner of projected top overall tourney seed Arizona and No. 16 Merrimack. 

The Aztecs lost 71-66 at Utah State last Saturday, when they blew an 11-point first-half lead, regained the lead in the second half and then folded in the last five minutes. The Aztecs and Aggies will meet again Feb. 25 at Viejas Arena in a game that could help decide the No. 1 seed for the conference tourney and the coveted noon Thursday tipoff time. 

Utah State Aggies head coach Jerrod Calhoun. | Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

SDSU and USU are both 10-2 in the MW. The Aztecs beat Wyoming 72-63 on Tuesday night. The Aggies routed New Mexico 86-66 in Albuquerque to knock the Lobos out of a three-way tie for first and into second place. 

Lunardi dropped New Mexico from the main bracket into a First Four matchup against Ohio State, with the winner getting the No. 11 seed in the Midwest and a game against No. 6 Louisville in Tampa.

The Aztecs were the unanimous preseason pick to win the MW regular-season title in their final season in the league before moving into the Pac-12 along with Utah State, Boise State, Fresno State and Colorado State. 

The Aztecs’ NCAA NET Ranking is No. 44. The NET Rankings are used by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee as the primary sorting tool for selection and seeding for March Madness.

SDSU (16-6 overall) returns to action Saturday at Air Force. Tipoff is set for 5 p.m. and the game will air on FS1.