San Diego State’s NCAA Tournament projection shifts in latest ESPN Bracketology

To earn the automatic berth, the Aztecs must win the conference tournament in Las Vegas

San Diego State Aztecs guard BJ Davis (10). | Photo courtesy of San Diego State University Athletics

A gut-punch of a loss in their personal house of horrors at Grand Canyon University didn’t affect the San Diego State Aztecs in the latest ESPN Bracketology, other than a geographic shift. 

Three days after Joe Lunardi moved the Aztecs back into the main bracket and projected them as the Mountain West’s automatic qualifier, the Aztecs remained an 11th seed. 

The difference in Friday morning’s update is that Lunardi now has them in the Midwest Region, drawing a first-round matchup against No. 6 Clemson in Philadelphia. Lunardi previously had the Aztecs as the No. 11 seed in the East, with a projected first-round game against No. 6 Louisville in St. Louis.

The new bracketology report comes less than 48 hours after the Aztecs lost 70-69 at GCU following a controversial foul in the last seconds that led to the winning free throws for the Antelopes. SDSU fell to 0-3 in GCU’s bandbox arena, but won’t have to play there anymore because the Aztecs are moving into the rebranded Pac-12 while GCU remains in the MW.

Despite suffering their first loss of the Mountain West season, the Aztecs (13-5, 7-1) remain atop the standings because they’re the only one-loss team. 

To earn the automatic berth, the Aztecs must win the conference tournament in Las Vegas. 

A rough non-conference stretch made it seem likely that an at-large bid was out of reach for the Aztecs. A double OT loss at home to Troy, followed by losses to Michigan and Baylor in the Players Era Festival in Las Vegas during Thanksgiving week, hurt their resume, and then they lost to No. 1 Arizona in Phoenix on Dec. 20.

San Diego State then reeled off seven straight wins before losing during their one and only trip to GCU as MW opponents. 

The Quad 2 loss at GCU dropped the Aztecs from No. 46 to No. 52 in the NCAA NET Ranking, which is used by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee as the primary sorting tool for selection and seeding for March Madness.

Lunardi is projecting three Mountain West teams in the field. He has dropped Utah State from the No. 8  seed in the West to the No. 9 seed in the South, lining up against No. 8 UCF in Houston. He lists New Mexico in a First Four game against UCLA, with the winner taking the No. 11 seed in the East and facing No. 6 Louisville in St. Louis. 

SDSU was without 7-footer Magoon Gwath on Wednesday night due to a hip injury, and they’re not sure when the big man will be back. 

San Diego State makes its final regular-season trip to Las Vegas on Saturday to face the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (10-8, 5-2) at 1 p.m. The game will air on CBS. UNLV is remaining in the MW. 

SDSU will be back in Las Vegas in March for the MW tourney.