San Diego State’s NCAA Tournament projection shifts regions in latest ESPN Bracketology

Aztecs must win conference tournament in Las Vegas to earn automatic berth

San Diego State Aztecs guard Miles Byrd. | Photo courtesy of San Diego State University Athletics

The San Diego State Aztecs are on the move geographically again in the latest ESPN Bracketology, but otherwise are still projected as the Mountain West Conference’s automatic qualifier in the NCAA Tournament. 

The Aztecs remained an 11th seed in Tuesday morning’s update, although bracket expert Joe Lunardi now has them in the South Region, drawing a first-round matchup against No. 6 Louisville in Oklahoma City. 

Since Lunardi moved the Aztecs back into the bracket last week, he’s had them as the No. 11 seed in the Midwest and the East before moving them again.

The new bracketology report is the first since the Aztecs bounced back from a heartbreaking loss at Grand Canyon to win 82-71 at UNLV in their final regular-season visit to the Thomas & Mack Center.

The victory kept the Aztecs (14-5, 8-1) atop the Mountain West standings as they are the only one-loss team. 

The Aztecs will be back at Thomas & Mack in March for their final MW tournament before moving into the Pac-12 next season. The Aztecs can punch their ticket to March Madness by winning the MW tournament. 

Dec 20, 2025; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; San Diego State Aztecs head coach Brian Dutcher. | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Otherwise, they’d have to hope for an at-large berth, which at one point seemed out of the question after the Aztecs hit a rough stretch against marquee teams in the non-conference portion of their schedule. SDSU has moved back into at-large consideration by winning eight of nine games. 

The Aztecs’ NCAA NET Ranking is No. 47, while Utah State’s is No. 26. Those rankings are used by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee as the primary sorting tool for selection and seeding for March Madness.

SDSU returns to Viejas Arena to host Colorado State at 7:30 p.m. PT on Wednesday. The game will air on FS1. 

Lunardi is projecting three Mountain West teams in the field. He still has Utah State as a No. 9 seed, but moved the Aggies from the South back to the West and has them facing No. 8 Georgia in the bracket that will play at San Diego State’s Viejas Arena. The winner of that game would draw Lunardi’s top overall seed, Arizona, which he has slated to play No. 16 Long Island in the first round. 

Lunardi lists New Mexico in a First Four game against Virginia Tech, with the winner taking the No. 11 seed in the West and facing Virginia Tech at Viejas Arena. 

SDSU beat New Mexico 83-79 at Viejas Arena in mid-January and will face Utah State for the first time this season at Logan on Saturday at 10 a.m. PT. That game will air on CBS.