San Diego State, New Mexico meet in Mountain West Tournament with NCAA hopes on the line

ESPN bracket experts say loser will see its bubble burst

New Mexico Lobos guard Deyton Albury (1). | James Snook-Imagn Images

The San Diego State Aztecs’ NCAA Tournament bubble drama will continue for at least one more late night in Las Vegas.

The No. 2-seeded Aztecs (21-10) and No. 3 New Mexico (23-9) face off in the Mountain West Tournament on Friday night at Thomas & Mack Center in what ESPN’s bracket experts call “a de facto NCAA tourney elimination contest.”

It will be late-night drama, as well. The game tips off at 9 p.m. PT and will air on CBS Sports Network. 

ESPN’s Bracketology is a moving target as the conference tournaments progress and teams move in and out of the projected Field of 68.

As of  Friday afternoon, Joe Lunardi had the Lobos one spot ahead of the Aztecs in his First Four Out. The Lobos were No. 71 and the Aztecs No. 72.

The Aztecs and Lobos have been on the bubble for weeks, moving in and out of the Field of 68 as their fortunes shifted.

Now it’s down to one game to see which team moves on to the championship game to play the Utah State-Nevada winner for the conference title and the automatic berth in the NCAAs.

“The Aztecs seemed to be sliding off the bubble with losses in four of their last six regular-season games, but they dispatched Colorado State to open the Mountain West tournament Thursday,” ESPN’s Neil Paine wrote on Friday. “Their consensus at-large chances are still just 29%, and their No. 50 ranking nationally on the résumé list lags other teams on the mid-major bubble.

“The encouraging news for the Aztecs: The Mountain West hasn't sent fewer than three teams to the NCAA tournament in five seasons, and they have the conference's second-best chances. They must take advantage of the chance to add more to their résumé -- and this upcoming New Mexico game will likely be a de facto NCAA tourney elimination contest.”

New Mexico is No. 45 and SDSU is No. 46 in the NCAA NET Rankings, which are used by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee as the primary sorting tool for selection and seeding for March Madness.

It will be a Quad 1 opportunity for both teams, which are each just 2-6 in such games.

Lunardi still has Utah State as the MW’s auto-bid team, as the No. 8 seed in the Midwest Region, with a projected first-round matchup with No. 9 Iowa in Buffalo. 

SDSU and New Mexico split the season series, each winning on its home floor. 

The teams will go their separate ways after this season, with SDSU heading into the new-look Pac-12 along with four other MW teams and the Lobos staying put.