San Diego State re-enters field of 64 in latest ESPN bracketology

Aztecs are projected as Mountain West’s automatic qualifier

San Diego State Aztecs guard Miles Byrd (21). | Photo courtesy of San Diego State University Athletics

A seven-game winning streak has the San Diego State Aztecs looking like the team that experts envisioned when they made the Aztecs the unanimous pick to win the Mountain West in their final season in the league. 

That winning streak, coupled with Utah State’s first conference loss, at Grand Canyon on Saturday, has put the Aztecs in sole possession of first place in the MW.

Joe Lunardi, ESPN's resident bracketologist, has taken notice and moved the Aztecs back into the bracket in his latest March Madness projections released Tuesday. 

Lunardi has the Aztecs as the MW’s automatic qualifier and lists them as the No. 11 seed in the East, with a projected first-round game against No. 6 Louisville in St. Louis. 

To earn the automatic berth, the Aztecs must win the conference tournament in Las Vegas. 

A rough non-conference stretch made it seem likely that an at-large bid was out of reach for the Aztecs. They lost in double OT at home to Troy, and then were roughed up in the Players Era Festival in Las Vegas during Thanksgiving week, losing by 40 to then-No. 7 Michigan and, two nights later, by 10 points to Baylor. 

The Aztecs fell to 1-3 in NCAA NET Quad 1 games when they were routed 65-48 by No. 1 Arizona in Phoenix on Dec. 20.

Dec 20, 2025; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Wildcats forward Tobe Awaka (30) slam dunks the ball against the San Diego State Aztecs. | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

San Diego State (13-4, 7-0 MW) has since rebounded by winning seven straight games, including six straight in MW play. 

The Aztecs surged into sole possession of first place on Saturday night by outlasting New Mexico 83-79 at Viejas Arena, a few hours after Utah State lost by 10 at Grand Canyon. 

SDSU came into this season with sky-high expectations, based on the return of projected NBA draft picks Miles Byrd and Magoon Gwath, along with a healthy Reese-Dixon Waters. But the blowout losses to Michigan and Arizona, and an alarming lack of their trademark defense, had many doubting whether the Aztecs would make the NCAA Tournament.

While the Aztecs have bounced back, it took surviving scares at home against Boise State in a triple-overtime thriller and then against New Mexico, which has a whole new roster under coach Eric Olen, who took over in Albuquerque after leading UC San Diego to its first-ever NCAA Tournament berth. 

The Aztecs have improved to No. 46 in the NCAA NET Ranking, which is used by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee as the primary sorting tool for selection and seeding for March Madness.

Lunardi is projecting three Mountain West teams in the field. He has Utah State as the No. 8  seed in the West, lining up against No. 9 Saint Mary’s in the West first round at SDSU’s Viejas Arena. He lists New Mexico in a First Four game against USC, with the winner to take the No. 10 seed in the Midwest and face No. 7 North Carolina in Oklahoma City. 

Three of SDSU’s non-conference opponents are projected in the field of 68, including a pair of No. 1 seeds in Arizona and Michigan, as well as No. 12 seed Utah Valley, the projected winner of the WAC. SDSU beat Utah Valley 77-66 on Dec. 3.

San Diego State visits MW newcomer Grand Canyon on Wednesday night. The game will tip off at 8 p.m. PT and will be broadcast on FS1.