San Diego State running out of time to save NCAA Tournament hopes

Aztecs’ best chance is to win Mountain West tournament

Feb 21, 2026; Fort Collins, Colorado, USA; Colorado State Rams guard Brandon Rechsteiner (2) controls the ball as San Diego State Aztecs forward Tae Simmons (8) guards in the second half at Moby Arena. | Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

The San Diego State Aztecs are running out of runway to save their NCAA Tournament hopes. 

A team that has reached March Madness more often than not in the last 15 years appears to be in big trouble after a pair of brutal losses last week, by 10 points at home to Grand Canyon and then by 11 points at Colorado State, a team the Aztecs beat by 23 in San Diego three weeks earlier. 

Yes, the Aztecs (18-8, 12-4 Mountain West) can pull back into a share of first place in the conference if it beats Utah State (23-4, 13-3) at Viejas Arena on Tuesday night, which, more importantly, would be a Quad 1 win in the NCAA NET Rankings. 

But relying on too many “ifs” is not a safe bet for a team that came into the season with high expectations based on having one of coach Brian Dutcher’s best rosters, including guard Miles Byrd and 7-footer Magoon Gwath, who withdrew from the NBA Draft for another swing at March Madness.

The Aztecs have been on the NCAA Tournament bubble for a few weeks now, and ESPN Bracketology expert Joe Lunardi has dropped them into the First Four Out. 

The Aztecs know that they can get into the NCAAs by winning the MW tournament and claiming the automatic bid. But winning three games in three days could be challenging for a team that has had some mystifying losses while not playing up to its defensive-minded identity.

What’s ahead

The losses to Grand Canyon and Colorado State were Quad 2 losses in the NCAA NET Rankings, dropping them to 5-2 overall in that category. 

What has killed the Aztecs is going 1-5 in Quad 1 games. Of SDSU’s four remaining games, the first three are Quad 1 opportunities. The first is against the Aggies, who beat the Aztecs 71-66 at Logan on Jan. 31. 

The next two are at New Mexico on Saturday and then at Boise State on March 3. The Aztecs have found both arenas to be inhospitable in the past. New Mexico has pulled into a second-place tie with the Aztecs.

SDSU’s resume has been troublesome since November, when they lost a Quad 3 home game against Troy, 108-107 in double overtime. They then lost big in their first three Quad 1 chances, to Michigan and Baylor in the Players Era Festival in Las Vegas during Thanksgiving week and to Arizona in Phoenix on Dec. 20.

The Quad 1 woes continued in MW play with losses at Grand Canyon and Utah State. 

The NCAA NET Rankings are used by the Tournament Selection Committee as the primary sorting tool for selection and seeding for March Madness.

Winning the MW regular-season title merely nets a team the coveted noon Thursday game in the tournament quarterfinals. Winning three straight games could be a challenge for the Aztecs. 

Last season, SDSU lost to Boise State by 10 points in an MW tournament quarterfinal and was relegated to the First Four, where it was routed by North Carolina. 

This season, the Aztecs might not even make it to that point.