San Diego State secures No. 2 seed, must win three straight for March Madness

Now, it’s really ‘go time’ for the San Diego State Aztecs.

With their chances at an at-large NCAA Tournament barely showing a pulse, if at all, the Aztecs head to their final Mountain West tournament knowing the only way to assure themselves of a sixth straight trip to March Madness is to win three games in three days.

Hoisting the trophy and cutting down the nets would bring a big sigh of relief for a team that was the unanimous pick to win the regular-season title but stumbled badly down the stretch.

The Aztecs (20-10, 14-6) will be the No. 2 seed after Utah State claimed the outright regular-season championship and claimed the outright title and No. 1 seed by holding off New Mexico 94-90 on Saturday in Logan.

The Aztecs, who have lost four of their last six games, already knew that they’d have a bye into the quarterfinals. They will play at 6 p.m. Thursday against the winner of the No. 7 Colorado State vs. No. 10 Fresno State first-round game on Wednesday night.

The Aztecs held off UNLV 89-86 on Friday night and were in position to share the title with Utah State and New Mexico if the Lobos had won.

Now they need to focus on getting healthy and getting prepared for the difficult task of having to win three straight games.

“My team is beat up, but I need to find a way to rest them for a couple of days and come out with great energy on Monday as we prepare for the conference tournament with three games in three days, hopefully,” coach Brian Dutcher said after the UNLV game.

The big picture

The Aztecs have won the MW tournament seven times, most recently in 2023. It has also made it to the championship game and lost nine times.

With their NCAA Tournament resume on shaky ground since early in the season, they have known for some time that their best shot at March Madness is to win it all in Vegas in their final MW tourney before jumping to the Pac-12 next season.

The Aztecs have been firmly on the bubble for the last several weeks and ESPN bracket expert Joe Lunardi has had the Aztecs in and out of the Field of 68.

In his Friday update, he had the Aztecs in the Next Four Out, missing the cut to make the Field of 68 by seven spots.

“As the Aztecs seemingly slid out of the bubble picture with losses in four of five games, they recovered some to outlast UNLV in the regular-season finale on Friday,” Lunardi wrote on Sunday.

“Despite the win, their consensus at-large chances are just 17%, and their No. 54 ranking nationally on the résumé list would put them on the wrong side of the bubble right now. On the positive side, the Mountain West hasn't sent fewer than three teams to the tournament in five seasons, and New Mexico's résumé is little better than SDSU's. The Aztecs are one of the teams most vulnerable to a bid thief during conference tournaments.”

Scouting report

The Aztecs will be watching the Fresno State-Colorado State first-round game with interest, knowing they’ll face the winner.

One of the Aztecs’ several head-scratching losses this season was at Colorado State on Feb. 21, when they dropped an 83-74 decision in Fort Collins to a Rams team that was then in eighth place. It was the same Rams team that lost 73-50 at Viejas Arena on Jan. 28.

Big man Magoon Gwath, who has been limited this season by injuries, was limited to five minutes in that game. The Aztecs fell behind by double digits in the first half and never recovered.

SDSU faced Fresno State just once this season, winning 71-52 at Viejas Arena on Jan. 10.

Being healthy will be key for the Aztecs, who are prone to streaky play and, at times, being outmuscled, as they were in being outrebounded 51-37 in an 86-77 loss at Boise State on Tuesday night.

“It's important to heal our bodies, but we also can't lose the edge, focus and sharpness,” said guard BJ Davis, who scored a career-high 30 points against UNLV and preserved the win with a defensive strip in the final seconds. “We have to do a good job at practice, just being dialed in and sharp.”