San Diego State sliding out of NCAA Tournament in latest ESPN Bracketology

Stunning loss at Colorado State drops SDSU to last spot in First Four Out

San Diego State Aztecs guard BJ Davis (10). | Photo courtesy of San Diego State University Athletics

The San Diego State Aztecs’ slow-drip descent away from the Field of 68 in ESPN’s Bracketology projections continues.

The Aztecs dropped out of the Field of 68 and into the First Four Out on Friday in Joe Lunardi’s projections, to No. 70. 

On Tuesday, the Aztecs were dropped to No. 72. That came three days after a startling 83-74 loss at Colorado State, a team the Aztecs had beaten by 23 points at home on Jan. 28.

“The Aztecs seemed to be building momentum with three straight wins over Wyoming, Air Force and Nevada, but consecutive losses to Grand Canyon and Colorado State have taken a major toll on their consensus at-large chances: from 65% to just 27% now,” Lunardi wrote on Monday. 

“After spending most of the season as one of the bubbliest of bubble teams, they've now slipped outside the top 50 nationally in the résumé ranking. The Mountain West could feasibly send three teams to the tournament -- it hasn't fallen below that threshold in five seasons -- and with a fairly sizable gap in at-large chances over the next-best team (Boise State, at south of 5%), San Diego State could get in regardless. But if the Mountain West gets only two bids, New Mexico has the edge right now.”

SDSU (18-8, 12-4) has four games left in the regular season, including three straight Quad 1 opportunities starting with Wednesday night’s home game against Mountain West leader Utah State. 

The Aztecs can pull into a first-place tie with the Aggies (23-4, 13-3) with a win. The Aggies beat the Aztecs 71-66 at Logan on Jan. 31.

As the Aztecs’ at-large chances fade, it’s likely their only chance to get into March Madness is to win the MW tournament and claim the automatic bid.

Lunardi continues to project Utah State as the MW’s automatic qualifier and has them listed as the No. 7 seed in the East, with a first-round game against No. 10 UCF in St. Louis. 

New Mexico was moved into the Last Four In at No. 68 and is projected for a First Four date with TCU, with the winner getting the No. 11 seed in the Midwest and a first-round date with No. 6 North Carolina in Tampa.

The Aztecs were the unanimous preseason pick to win the MW regular-season title in their final season in the league before moving into the Pac-12 along with Utah State, Boise State, Fresno State and Colorado State. 

The Aztecs dropped to No. 44 in the NCAA NET Rankings, which are used by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee as the primary sorting tool for selection and seeding for March Madness.