San Diego State vs. Boise State picks, predictions for college football Week 12 game

Aztecs are 2.5-point home favorites in showdown against Boise State

Oct 3, 2025; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego State Aztecs running back Byron Cardwell Jr. (21). | David Frerker-Imagn Images

Months ago, not many people would have predicted how big the stakes would be when San Diego State hosts Boise State on Saturday night at Snapdragon Stadium. The game kicks off at 7:30 p.m. PT and will air on CBS Sports Network. 

The Aztecs (7-2, 4-1 MW) and Broncos (6-3, 4-1) are tied for the Mountain West lead going into the showdown and the winner will have the inside track for hosting the conference championship game on Dec. 5.

SDSU is coming off an embarrassing 38-6 loss at Hawaii, in which it was outplayed in all three phases. The Broncos had a bye week following their dismal 30-7 home loss to Fresno State. 

The Aztecs were 3-9 last year but have turned things around in Sean Lewis’ second season. The loss at Hawaii ended their six-game losing streak and cost them sole possession of the MW lead. Boise State is the defending league champion and made it to the College Football Playoff last year before being routed by Penn State. 

Several outlets and media personnel have made their picks for the Week 12 matchup.  San Diego State is a 2.5-point favorite and the over/under is 41.5 points, according to FanDuel.

Here's a look at how a few prognosticators foresee the Broncos-Aztecs matchup playing out.

Bleacher Report: Boise State 20, San Diego State 17

Bleacher Report’s David Kenyon is picking against the Aztecs for the third time in four games. 

Dimers.com: San Diego State 22, Boise State 21

After simulating the outcome of the Broncos-Aztecs matchup more than 10,000 times, Dimers.com’s model gives San Diego State a 55% win probability on the moneyline to improve to 8-2 overall. It gives the Broncos a 52% chance to cover the spread, which is +2.5 points, and a 58% chance for the 41.5-point over/under to go under.

ESPN SP+: San Diego State 25, Boise State 23

Bill Connelly's SP+ model, a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measurement of college football efficiency, gives the Aztecs a 54% chance of a home win against the Broncos. This is the seventh straight game Connelly's metrics-based formulas picked the Aztecs to win, although they missed badly with the Hawaii game.

Odds Shark: San Diego State 33, Boise State 28

For the fifth straight game, Odds Shark's computer predicts SDSU will win, cover the spread and the total will go over. It predicts the Aztecs to win 33.4-27.8, which we’ll round to 33-28.

Sportsbook Wire: San Diego State 24, Boise State 23

USA TODAY's sports betting site has San Diego State failing to cover the spread and the score to go over.

Odds are courtesy of FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.