San Diego State climbs ESPN’s FPI rankings after another shutout
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The San Diego State Aztecs moved up 10 spots in ESPN's predictive rating system on Tuesday, from 71st to 61st, and are now in positive territory for the first time this season.
The jump came after the Aztecs (6-1, 3-0 Mountain West) beat longtime rival Fresno State 23-0 on Saturday.
SDSU’s FPI jumped from -1.2 to 0.9, the first time it’s been in plus territory as it continues its resurgence in coach Sean Lewis’ second season.
Now that the Aztecs are bowl eligible after notching their sixth win, there are some other areas fans can look at.
With five games left, the Aztecs’ projected won-loss record is now listed at 9.3-3.1. They have just a 3.7% chance of winning out, however.
Of their five remaining games, only one opponent, San Jose State (2-5, 1-2), has a losing record.
The big takeaway from Saturday’s win, besides retaining the Old Oil Can and pitching their third shutout this season, is that the Aztecs will be playing in a bowl game for the first time since 2022.
The Aztecs played in 12 bowl games between 2010 and 2022, including 10 straight from 2010-2019. They missed a bowl in Brady Hoke’s final season as coach in 2023 and in Lewis’ first year in 2024, when they were 3-9.
What is the FPI?
The FPI is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
FPI in the Mountain West
With the 0.9 FPI, the Aztecs leapfrogged UNLV into second place in the Mountain West. The only other MW team with a positive FPI is defending league champion Boise State at 7.4.
The Aztecs host the Broncos on Nov. 15.
San Diego State’s chance of winning the conference title in its last season in the Mountain West is up to 16.5%, behind BSU (69.6%).
SDSU, Boise State, Utah State, Fresno State and Colorado State are headed to the new-look Pac-12 starting on July 1, joining holdovers Washington State and Oregon State, as well as Texas State in football and Gonzaga in basketball.
What’s next
The Aztecs return to Snapdragon Stadium for the first time in a month to host Wyoming (4-4, 2-2) in their Homecoming game on Saturday.
Wyoming is No. 96 and its FPI is -7.2, seventh in the MW.
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-bd678ba4dbad4f453246f539ee56a3b4.jpg "Bernie Wilson")
Bernie Wilson recently retired from The Associated Press after nearly 41 years, including stops in Spokane, Los Angeles and, for the final 33 years, San Diego. He grew up in Coeur d'Alene and graduated from the University of Idaho.