San Diego State climbs ESPN’s FPI ratings following win over Nevada
The San Diego State Aztecs jumped 13 spots in ESPN's predictive rating system on Monday, from 85th to 72nd.
The big jump came after the Aztecs (5-1, 2-0 Mountain West) played their most complete game of the year in a 44-10 rout at Nevada, which extended their winning streak to four games. The Aztecs are headed into their second bye week.
SDSU’s FPI had a healthy jump, from -4.7 to -1.0.
With six games left, the Aztecs’ projected won-loss record is now listed at 8.8-3.5, which we’ll take the liberty of rounding to 9-3.
That, of course, means their chances of having a six-win season and hitting bowl eligibility are now up to 99.7%.
The Aztecs played in 12 bowl games between 2010 and 2022, including 10 straight from 2010-2019. They missed a bowl in Brady Hoke’s final season as coach in 2023 and in Lewis’ first year in 2024, when they were 3-9.
What is the FPI?
The FPI is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
FPI in the Mountain West
With the -1.0 FPI, the Aztecs jumped to third in the Mountain West. There are only two MW teams with a positive FPI, defending league champion Boise State at 5.8 and UNLV at 0.9.
UNLV, SDSU and Boise State are all 2-0 in league play.
San Diego State’s chance of winning the conference title in its last season in the Mountain West is now 13.6%, behind BSU (53.9%) and UNLV (28.4%).
SDSU, Boise State, Utah State, Fresno State and Colorado State are headed to the new-look Pac-12 starting on July 1, joining holdovers Washington State and Oregon State, as well as Texas State in football and Gonzaga in basketball.
San Diego State hosts Boise State on Nov. 15. The Aztecs miss UNLV this season.
What’s next
After getting a week off, the Aztecs travel to face long-time rival Fresno State on Oct. 25. The Bulldogs (5-2, 2-1) were routed 49-21 at Colorado State on Friday night, a week after SDSU routed the Rams 45-24 at Snapdragon Stadium.
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-bd678ba4dbad4f453246f539ee56a3b4.jpg "Bernie Wilson")
Bernie Wilson recently retired from The Associated Press after nearly 41 years, including stops in Spokane, Los Angeles and, for the final 33 years, San Diego. He grew up in Coeur d'Alene and graduated from the University of Idaho.