San Diego State climbs ESPN’s FPI ratings
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A signature 34-0 win against previously undefeated California helped the San Diego State Aztecs jump 28 spots in ESPN's predictive rating system on Monday, from 118th in the country to 90th.
That’s the best ranking this season in the Football Power Index for the Aztecs (2-1), who finish their non-conference schedule with a trip to DeKalb, Illinois, to face the Northern Illinois Huskies on Saturday afternoon.
SDSU’s FPI rose from -13.6 to -7.4.
And in a good indicator for Sean Lewis’ team, the Aztecs’ projected won-loss record is now listed at 6.3-5.7.
That of course means that their chances of having a six-win season and hitting bowl eligibility are back on the plus side, all the way up to 72%. They had dropped to 13.6% after a dismal 36-13 loss at Washington State on Sept. 6.
The Aztecs played in 12 bowl games between 2010 and 2022, including 10 straight from 2010-2019. They missed a bowl in Brady Hoke’s final season as coach in 2023 and in Lewis’ first year in 2024, when they were 3-9.
What is the FPI?
The FPI is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
FPI in the Mountain West
With the -7.4 FPI, the Aztecs jumped up to seventh in the Mountain West. There are only two MW teams with a positive FPI, defending league champion Boise State at 2.6 and UNLV at 0.2.
San Diego State’s chance of winning the conference title in its last season in the Mountain West is 1.9%. SDSU, Boise State, Utah State, Fresno State and Colorado State are headed to the new-look Pac-12 starting on July 1, joining holdovers Washington State and Oregon State, as well as Texas State in football and Gonzaga in basketball.
What’s next
The Aztecs hit the road to face a Huskies team that has struggled to a 1-2 record. Additionally, the Aztecs are 6-0 in a series that dates to 1967 and have outscored the Huskies 228-96, including a 34-28 win in San Diego in their most recent meeting in 2017.
The Huskies are ranked 100th with an FPI of -9.0, down five spots after losing at Mississippi State.
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-bd678ba4dbad4f453246f539ee56a3b4.jpg "Bernie Wilson")
Bernie Wilson recently retired from The Associated Press after nearly 41 years, including stops in Spokane, Los Angeles and, for the final 33 years, San Diego. He grew up in Coeur d'Alene and graduated from the University of Idaho.