San Diego State falls in ESPN’s FPI ratings

The Aztecs dropped coming off a bye weekend

Sep 6, 2025; Pullman, Washington, USA; San Diego State Aztecs quarterback Jayden Denegal (4) throws a pass against the Washington State Cougars in the second half at Gesa Field at Martin Stadium. | James Snook-Imagn Images

The San Diego State Aztecs had their first bye weekend and dropped two spots in ESPN's predictive rating system, from 116th in the country to 118th.

That puts the Aztecs (1-1) one spot below their ranking in the initial Football Power Index in June. The Aztecs had a 12-point drop a week ago after a dismal 36-13 loss at Washington State.

Additionally, SDSU’s FPI dropped from -12.2 to -13.6, worse than its initial FPI of -11.8.

And in another big drop, the Aztecs’ projected won-loss record is now listed at 4-8, down from 4.4-7.6 last week. 

The Aztecs’ chances of having a six-win season have dropped from 22% to 13.6%. They had a 55.9% chance after a 42-0 home win against Stony Brook of the FCS in their season opener. 

That doesn’t bode well for bowl eligibility, and it appears it will take a strong rebound to get them up to the required six wins. The Aztecs played in 12 bowl games between 2010 and 2022, including 10 straight from 2010-2019. They missed a bowl in Brady Hoke’s final season as coach in 2023 and in Sean Lewis’ first year in 2024, when they were 3-9.

What is the FPI?

The FPI is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season. 

FPI in the Mountain West

With the -13.6 FPI, the Aztecs remain second-from-last in the Mountain West, just ahead of Nevada (-14.9). There are only two MW teams with a positive FPI, defending league champion Boise State at 2.4 and UNLV at 1.0.

Aug 28, 2025; Tampa, Florida, USA; Boise State Broncos quarterback Maddux Madsen (4) hands off to Boise State Broncos running back Malik Sharrod (8) against the South Florida Bulls in the second quarter at Raymond James Stadium. | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

San Diego State’s chance of winning the conference title in its last season in the Mountain West dipped to 0.1%. SDSU, Boise State, Utah State, Fresno State and Colorado State are headed to the new-look Pac-12 starting on July 1, joining holdovers Washington State and Oregon State, as well as Texas State in football and Gonzaga in basketball.

What’s next

The Aztecs host the California Golden Bears (3-0) on Saturday night at Snapdragon Stadium. 

Cal, in its second season in the ACC, is 58th in the country with a FPI of 2.5. The Golden Bears have had impressive wins over former Pac-12 rival Oregon State and Minnesota of the Big Ten, and a blowout win over Texas Southern of the FCS.

Sep 6, 2025; Berkeley, California, USA; California Golden Bears head coach Justin Wilcox (center) walks on the field before the game against the Texas Southern Tigers at California Memorial Stadium. | Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

Cal beat SDSU 31-10 at Berkeley in 2024 in Sean Lewis’ third game as the Aztecs’ coach. 

The Aztecs had a lot of work to do during the off week, including offensive efficiency. They struggled to move the ball at WSU and converted just twice on 13 third downs and only once on four fourth downs. However, that one fourth-down conversion was a 35-yard touchdown pass from Jayden Denegal to Jacob Bostick for the game’s first score, five minutes in. 

But the Cougars scored the next 29 points.