San Diego State vs. Hawaii picks, predictions for college football Week 11 game

Aztecs are 6.5-point road favorites against the Rainbow Warriors

Oct 3, 2025; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego State Aztecs running back Lucky Sutton (7). | David Frerker-Imagn Images

San Diego State looks to extend its winning streak to seven games and protect its Mountain West lead when it visits Hawaii on Saturday night. The game kicks off at 8 p.m. PT at Clarence T.C. Ching Complex and will air on Spectrum/MWN.

The Aztecs (7-1, 4-0 MW) are coming off a 24-7 home win against Wyoming that, coupled with Boise State’s home loss to Fresno State, boosted them into sole possession of the conference lead. 

Hawaii (6-3, 3-2) is coming off a 45-38 shootout loss at San Jose State.

SDSU leads the series 26-11-2 and has won 11 of the last 13 games. 

Although San Diego State is leaving the MW for the Pac-12 next season, this won’t be the Aztecs’ final trip to Honolulu. The schools announced a home-and-home series that will see the Aztecs host the Rainbow Warriors in 2028 and make a return trip to Honolulu in 2029. 

Several outlets and media personnel have made their picks for the Week 11 matchup.  San Diego State is a 6.5-point favorite and the over/under is 50.5 points, according to FanDuel.

Here's a look at how a few prognosticators foresee the Cowboys-Aztecs matchup playing out.

Bleacher Report: Hawaii 27, San Diego State 24

Bleacher Report’s David Kenyon is picking against the Aztecs for the second time in three games. He also picked Fresno State two weeks ago before SDSU won 23-0.

Dimers.com: San Diego State 29, Hawaii 22 19

After simulating the outcome of the Cowboys-Aztecs matchup more than 10,000 times, Dimers.com’s model gives San Diego State a 68% win probability to improve to 8-1 overall. It gives the Aztecs a 50% chance to cover the spread, which is -6.5 points, and a 52% chance for the under to hit.

ESPN SP+: San Diego State 29, Hawaii 18

Bill Connelly's SP+ model, a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measurement of college football efficiency, gives the Aztecs a 75% chance of a road win against the Rainbow Warriors. This is the sixth straight game Connelly's metrics-based formulas picked the Aztecs to win.

Odds Shark: San Diego State 41, Hawaii 11

For the fourth straight game, Odds Shark's computer predicts SDSU will win, cover the spread and the total will go over. It predicts the Aztecs to win 41.3-11.3, which rounds down to 41-11.

Sportsbook Wire: San Diego State 29, Hawaii 19

USA TODAY's sports betting site has San Diego State more than covering the spread and the score to go just under.

Odds are courtesy of FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.