San Diego State makes big jump in ESPN’s FPI rating

The Aztecs rise after defensive struggle in win at Northern Illinois

San Diego State Aztecs wide receiver Jordan Napier (2). | Photo courtesy of San Diego State University Athletics

The San Diego State Aztecs moved up six spots in ESPN's predictive rating system on Monday, from 90th in the country to 84th. 

That’s the best ranking this season in the Football Power Index for the Aztecs (3-1), who won 6-3 at Northern Illinois to finish their non-conference schedule. After matching their win total from Sean Lewis’ first season as coach, the Aztecs are preparing to host struggling Colorado State (1-3) in the Mountain West opener for both teams.

SDSU’s FPI rose from -7.4 to -5.9.

And in a good indicator for Sean Lewis’ team, the Aztecs’ projected won-loss record is now listed at 7.2-4.9.

That of course means that their chances of having a six-win season and hitting bowl eligibility continue to trend upward, all the way to 90.6%. 

The Aztecs played in 12 bowl games between 2010 and 2022, including 10 straight from 2010-2019. They missed a bowl in Brady Hoke’s final season as coach in 2023 and in Lewis’ first year in 2024, when they were 3-9.

What is the FPI?

The FPI is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season. 

FPI in the Mountain West

With the -5.9 FPI, the Aztecs jumped up to sixth in the Mountain West. There are only two MW teams with a positive FPI, defending league champion Boise State at 4.7 and UNLV at 0.6.

Sep 20, 2025; Colorado Springs, Colorado, USA; Boise State Broncos running back Dylan Riley (24) celebrates with quarterback Maddux Madsen (4). | Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

San Diego State’s chance of winning the conference title in its last season in the Mountain West is 2.8%. SDSU, Boise State, Utah State, Fresno State and Colorado State are headed to the new-look Pac-12 starting on July 1, joining holdovers Washington State and Oregon State, as well as Texas State in football and Gonzaga in basketball.

Colorado State’s FPI is -10.6 and its ranking has dropped 22 spots to No. 109 after a home blowout loss to future Pac-12 opponent Washington State.

What’s next

The Aztecs welcome the Rams to Snapdragon Stadium for a 7:30 p.m. PT kickoff on Friday night. 

SDSU leads the series 22-15 and have won seven of the last nine games and 10 of 13.

The Rams have struggled against FBS schools this season, losing big to Washington and WSU, and falling to UTSA in a close one. Their only win was against Northern Colorado of the FCS.

San Diego State also lost big to WSU, at Pullman on Sept. 6, before rebounding two weeks later to rout California 34-0 at home.