San Diego State makes big jump in ESPN’s FPI ratings

Aztecs now have better than 50% chance at bowl eligibility

San Diego State Aztecs head coach Sean Lewis (right). | Troy Babbitt-Imagn Images

The latest rankings from ESPN's predictive rating system have San Diego State at 104th in the country following a 42-0 win against Stony Brook of the FCS.

That’s a bump up from No. 117 in the initial FPI that came out in June. 

Additionally, SDSU’s FPI is -8.5, while its FPI in the initial rating was -11.8. The Aztecs’ projected won-loss record is now listed at 5.8-6.3, up from 4.7-7.3.

The Aztecs have a 55.9% chance of a six-win season, which of course bodes well for bowl eligibility. The Aztecs played in 12 bowl games between 2010 and 2022, including 10 straight from 2010-2019.

What is the FPI?

The FPI is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season. 

FPI in the Mountain West

SDSU’s -8.5 FPI puts it right in the middle of the Mountain West, tied with Utah State. There are only two MW teams with a positive FPI, UNLV at 2.5 and Boise State at 1.1. UNLV is 2-0 after wins against FCS Idaho State and Sam Houston. BSU was routed at USF in its opener. 

San Diego State is now given a 1.4% chance to win the Mountain West in its last year in the league. SDSU, Boise State, Utah State, Fresno State and Colorado State are headed to the new-look Pac-12 starting on July 1, joining holdovers Washington State and Oregon State, as well as Texas State in football and Gonzaga in basketball.

What’s next

Speaking of the new-look Pac-12, the Aztecs head to Pullman, Wash., to play WSU on Saturday night in Martin Stadium. WSU is 1-0 after outlasting Idaho 13-10 in the Battle of the Palouse. 

Wheels up to Pullman. Week 2 is here.#AztecFAST 🍢 x #BeTheA1pha 🐺 x #TheClimb 📈 pic.twitter.com/itLIiEkB04

— San Diego State Football (@AztecFB) September 2, 2025

While Stony Brook is a respectable FCS program, having bounced back from a winless campaign in 2023 to 8-4 last year, the Aztecs will get a much better feel for where they are in Sean Lewis’ second season as coach by facing the Cougars. 

Oregon State (No. 97) and WSU (No. 99) both have an FPI of -8.2.

WSU gained only three yards rushing against the Vandals and were outgained 221-211.

San Diego State liked the confidence transfer quarterback Jayden Denegal showed in running the offense in his first college start, as well as Lucky Sutton’s first 100-yard game.