San Diego State moves up in ESPN’s FPI rankings after win over Boise State

Aztecs are heavy favorites to win the Mountain West

Oct 3, 2025; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego State Aztecs wide receiver Mikey Welsh (14). | David Frerker-Imagn Images

The San Diego State Aztecs moved up eight spots in ESPN's predictive rating system on Monday, from 72nd to 64th, and are heavily favored to win the Mountain West. 

The jump came after the Aztecs (8-2, 5-1 Mountain West) beat Boise State 17-7 at Snapdragon Stadium in a first-place showdown that left them in sole possession of first place. 

SDSU’s FPI is 0-0, second in the MW behind BSU’s 3.3.

With two games left, the Aztecs’ projected won-loss record is now listed at 9.9-2.9. Their chances of winning out are now up to 30.1%.

SDSU’s remaining games are at home against San Jose State (3-7, 2-4) and at New Mexico (7-3, 4-2), which is one of five teams tied at 4-2, one game behind the Aztecs. 

What is the FPI?

The FPI is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season. 

FPI in the Mountain West

Boise State dropped just one spot, from 53rd to 54th. The Broncos are the only MW team in positive territory, at 3.3. 

San Diego State’s chance of winning the conference title in its last season in the Mountain West has jumped to 46%, with UNLV next at 26.1% and BSU dropping to 9.2%. Boise State was the preseason favorite to repeat as MW champion, while the Aztecs were picked eighth.

SDSU has a 1.2% chance of reaching the College Football Playoff.

By winning out, SDSU would host the MW title game on Dec. 5. 

There’s a logjam of five teams sitting one game behind SDSU at 4-2 — Fresno State, Boise State, New Mexico, UNLV and Hawaii. Fresno State beat Boise State two weeks ago and lost to SDSU on Oct. 25. The Aztecs don’t play UNLV this year and lost 38-6 at Hawaii before rebounding to beat BSU.

What’s next

The Aztecs play their regular-season home finale at 7:30 p.m. against San Jose State, which is on a two-game losing streak. They’ll finish the regular season at New Mexico the following week. 

San Jose State is ranked No. 113 and its FPI is -11.8, second-worst in the MW.

This will be the last game between the Spartans and Aztecs as MW members. Next season, SDSU, BSU, Fresno State, Colorado State and Utah State will be playing in the reconfigured Pac-12.