San Diego State moves up in ESPN’s FPI ratings after bye week

The Aztecs remain third-best in Mountain West

San Diego State Aztecs wide receiver Jordan Napier. | Photo courtesy of San Diego State University Athletics

The San Diego State Aztecs moved up one spot in ESPN's predictive rating system on Monday, from 72nd to 71st.

The slight bump came after the Aztecs (5-1, 2-0)  had their second bye week. A week earlier, the Aztecs moved up 13 spots after playing their most complete game of the year in a 44-10 rout at Nevada, which extended their winning streak to four games. 

SDSU’s FPI dipped from -1.0 to -1.2

With six games left, the Aztecs’ projected won-loss record is now listed at 8.6-3.7, which we’ll take the liberty of rounding to 9-3.

The Aztecs are on the cusp of bowl eligibility and their odds of hitting six wins remain 99.7%.

The Aztecs played in 12 bowl games between 2010 and 2022, including 10 straight from 2010-2019. They missed a bowl in Brady Hoke’s final season as coach in 2023 and in Lewis’ first year in 2024, when they were 3-9.

What is the FPI?

The FPI is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season. 

FPI in the Mountain West

With the -1.2 FPI, the Aztecs remain third in the Mountain West. The only MW team with a positive FPI is defending league champion Boise State at 7.3 following its big win over previously undefeated UNLV, which dropped from 0.9 to -0.8.

BSU improved to 3-0 in league, ahead of SDSU at 2-0.

San Diego State’s chance of winning the conference title in its last season in the Mountain West dipped from 13.6% to 10.1%, behind BSU (71.4%) and UNLV (13.6%).

San Diego State Aztecs running back Lucky Sutton (7). | Photo courtesy of San Diego State University Athletics

San Diego State hosts Boise State on Nov. 15. The Aztecs miss UNLV this season. 

SDSU, Boise State, Utah State, Fresno State and Colorado State are headed to the new-look Pac-12 starting on July 1, joining holdovers Washington State and Oregon State, as well as Texas State in football and Gonzaga in basketball.

What’s next

After getting a week off, the Aztecs travel to face long-time rival Fresno State on Saturday. The Bulldogs (5-2, 2-1) were routed 49-21 at Colorado State on Friday night, a week after SDSU routed the Rams 45-24 at Snapdragon Stadium.

Fresno State moved up two spots to No. 94 and its FPI is -7.1, seventh in the MW.