San Diego State vs. New Mexico picks, predictions for college football Week 14 game

Aztecs are 1.5-point road favorites against resurgent New Mexico

Nov 22, 2025; Colorado Springs, Colorado, USA; New Mexico Lobos quarterback James Laubstein (13) and offensive lineman Isaiah Sillemon (50). | Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

The San Diego State Aztecs remain on track to host the Mountain West Championship Game on Dec. 5.

The Aztecs can assure themselves of the host role by winning Friday afternoon at New Mexico, which, like the Aztecs, is enjoying a resurgent season. Kickoff against the Lobos is at 12:30 p.m. PT at University Stadium and the game will air on CBS Sports Network. 

The Aztecs (9-2, 6-1 MW) are coming off home wins against Boise State and San Jose State. 

New Mexico (8-3, 5-2) has had a remarkable turnaround season under first-year coach Jason Eck, who previously helped turn around Idaho’s fortunes. The Lobos have won five straight games and are 5-0 at home. If New Mexico beats the Aztecs and those two teams end up as the league’s only 6–2 teams, New Mexico would host the title game. It can also host under other scenarios.

The Aztecs are enjoying a big turnaround from coach Sean Lewis’ first season, when the Aztecs were 3-9 overall, 2-5 in the MW and lost their last six games. Winning the MW title would be a nice capper as the Aztecs move into the new-look Pac-12, along with four league rivals. San Jose State will stay behind in the MW.

Several outlets and media personnel have made their picks for the Week 14 matchup.  San Diego State is a 1.5-point road favorite against the Lobos and the over/under is 41.5 points, according to FanDuel.

Here's a look at how a few prognosticators see the Aztecs-Lobos matchup playing out.

Bleacher Report: San Diego State 23, New Mexico 19

Bleacher Report’s David Kenyon is going with the Aztecs for the second straight week after picking against them three times in four games. 

Dimers.com: New Mexico 23, San Diego State 21

After simulating the outcome of the Lobo-Aztecs matchup more than 10,000 times, Dimers.com’s model gives New Mexico a 54% chance to cover the spread and a 56% win probability on the moneyline to improve to 9-3 overall. It predicts a 54% chance for the 41.5-point over/under to go under.

ESPN SP+: San Diego State 26, New Mexico 22

Bill Connelly's SP+ model, a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measurement of college football efficiency, gives the Aztecs a 62% chance of a road win against the Lobos. This is the ninth straight game Connelly's metrics-based formulas picked the Aztecs to win.

Odds Shark: San Diego State 34, New Mexico 33

Odds Shark's computer predicts SDSU will win, New Mexico will cover the 1.5-point spread and the 41.5-point total will go over. It predicts the Aztecs to win 34.1-33.5, which we’ll round to 34-33.

Sportsbook Wire: New Mexico 23, San Diego State 21

USA TODAY's sports betting site has New Mexico covering the 1.5-point spread and the score to go over the 41.5-point over/under.

Odds are courtesy of FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.