San Diego State vs. North Texas picks, predictions for New Mexico Bowl

Several outlets and media personnel have made their picks for the New Mexico Bowl matchup

San Diego State Aztecs running back Byron Cardwell Jr. (21). | Photo courtesy of San Diego State University Athletics

After opening as 3.5-point underdogs to North Texas in the Isleta New Mexico Bowl, the San Diego State Aztecs are now 5.5-point underdogs in Saturday afternoon’s game.

Most prognosticators are picking the Mean Green (11-2) to beat the Aztecs, mostly based on their top-ranked offense. Kickoff is at 2:45 p.m. PT at University Stadium in Albuquerque and the game will air on ESPN. 

The Aztecs (9-3) will be playing on the same field where their dreams of hosting the Mountain West championship game disappeared after a 23-17, double-overtime loss to the New Mexico Lobos. The Aztecs were knocked out of the title game altogether after the league used computer rankings to break a four-way tie at 6-2 and sent Boise State and UNLV to the title tilt. 

Nonetheless, it was still a big turnaround for the Aztecs, who won six more games than they did in coach Sean Lewis’ first season. They can clinch their first double-digit win season since 2021, when they went 12-2.

This will be the Aztecs’ last game as an MW member. Next fall, they’ll begin play in the reconstituted Pac-12.

North Texas (11-2) is coming off a 34-21 loss to Tulane in the American Conference championship game.

Several outlets and media personnel have made their picks for the New Mexico Bowl matchup.  North Texas is a 5.5-point favorite against the Aztecs and the over/under is 53.5 points, according to FanDuel.

Here's a look at how a few prognosticators see the Aztecs-Mean Green matchup playing out.

Bleacher Report: San Diego State 28, North Texas 24

Bleacher Report’s David Kenyon is going with the Aztecs for the third straight game after picking against them three times in four games. 

Dimers.com: North Texas 29, San Diego State 25

After simulating the outcome of the Aztecs-Mean Green matchup 10,000 times, Dimers.com’s model gives San Diego State a 55% chance to cover the spread of 5.5 points but gives North Texas a 60% win probability on the moneyline to improve to 12-2 overall. It predicts a 52% chance for the 53.5-point over/under to go under.

ESPN SP+: North Texas 32, San Diego State 24

Bill Connelly's SP+ model, a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measurement of college football efficiency, gives the Mean Green a 70% chance of a bowl win against the Aztecs. This is the first time in 10 games that Connelly's metrics-based formulas picked the Aztecs’ opponent to win. 

Odds Shark: North Texas 46, San Diego State 30

Odds Shark's computer predicts North Texas will win, cover the 6-point spread and the 53-point total will go over. It predicts the Mean Green will win 45.7-30.2, which we’ll round to 46-30.

Sportsbook Wire: North Texas 31, San Diego State 23

USA TODAY's sports betting site has North Texas covering the 5.5-point spread and the score to go just over the 53-point over/under.

Odds are courtesy of FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.