San Diego State projected to play in bowl game at SoFi Stadium
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San Diego State remains in control of its own destiny for hosting the Mountain West championship game in its final year in the league, and pundits have a good feeling that they’ll win it based on bowl projections.
The Aztecs remain the consensus choice to grab the spot in the Los Angeles Bowl that’s earmarked for the Mountain West champion. The LA Bowl will be played on Dec. 13 at SoFi Stadium, the futuristic, $5 billion home of the NFL’s Rams and Chargers.
The Aztecs (8-2, 5-1) are back in sole possession of first place in the MW after a 17-7 win against Boise State in the rain on Saturday night at Snapdragon Stadium.
They have a one-game lead over five teams with two games left in the season. For the Aztecs, that starts with their regular-season home finale Saturday against struggling San Jose State (3-7, 2-4). The Aztecs will then close the regular season at New Mexico (7-3, 4-2).
The bowl picture
There are a number of scenarios in which the Aztecs can clinch a berth in the MW championship as soon as Saturday, but they include relying on other teams to come through, as well as the Aztecs beating the Spartans.
The simple math for hosting the game is to win out.
The MW title game will match the two teams with the highest winning percentages. The team with the highest conference winning percentage outright will host the game.
The LA Bowl, played at the $5 billion home of the Los Angeles Rams and Chargers of the NFL, matches the Mountain West champion against a Pac-12 legacy team.
Why all this matters
The Aztecs have turned around their fortunes in Sean Lewis’ second season as coach and are bowl eligible for the first time since 2002.
SDSU played in 10 straight bowl games from 2010-2019. It made consecutive appearances in 2021-2022 before missing the postseason in Brady Hoke’s final season as head coach in 2023 and Lewis’ first season last fall.
Bowl projections for San Diego State:
CBS Sports
Los Angeles Bowl, Dec. 13: San Diego State vs. Washington
CBS Sports was the first to project the Aztecs to the LA Bowl several weeks ago. This would be an easy trip for Aztecs fans, up the freeway to SoFi Stadium in Inglewood to cheer for SDSU against former Pac-12 member Washington, which is now in the Big Ten.
USA Today
Los Angeles Bowl, Dec. 13: San Diego State vs. Arizona
USA Today is sticking with this projection for the third straight week. The Aztecs last played Arizona on Sept. 3, 2022, when the Wildcats won 38-20 in the first game at Snapdragon Stadium, when it was 100 degrees at kickoff.
Kyle Bonagura, ESPN
Los Angeles Bowl, Dec. 13: San Diego State vs. Arizona
For the third straight week, Bonagura is predicting the Aztecs matching up with former Pac-12 and current Big 12 team Arizona. The Wildcats (7-3, 4-3 Big 12) have won three straight games.
Mark Schlabach, ESPN
Los Angeles Bowl, Dec. 13, San Diego State vs. Washington
Schlabach continues to keep the Aztecs slotted into the LA Bowl and for the second straight week has them facing Washington (7-3, 4-3).
Athlon Sports
Los Angeles Bowl, Dec. 13: San Diego State vs. Washington
Athlon also keeps the Aztecs in the LA Bowl and for the second straight week has them facing the Huskies.
Mountain West Connection
The experts at Mountain West Connection remain on board with the Aztecs going to the LA Bowl. They do not project opponents.
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-bd678ba4dbad4f453246f539ee56a3b4.jpg "Bernie Wilson")
Bernie Wilson recently retired from The Associated Press after nearly 41 years, including stops in Spokane, Los Angeles and, for the final 33 years, San Diego. He grew up in Coeur d'Alene and graduated from the University of Idaho.