San Diego State vs. San Jose State picks, predictions for college football Week 13 game

Aztecs are 12.5-point home favorites against struggling San Jose State

San Diego State Aztecs wide receiver Jordan Napier (2). | Photo courtesy of San Diego State University Athletics

With two games left in the regular season, the San Diego State Aztecs are back on track to host the Mountain West Championship Game on Dec. 5.

The easiest way is to win out, starting with Saturday night’s home game against struggling San Jose State and then at New Mexico on Nov. 28. Kickoff against the Spartans is at 7:30 p.m. PT Saturday and the game will air on FS1.

The Aztecs (8-2, 5-1 MW) bounced back from an embarrassing loss at Hawaii to beat Boise State at home in the rain last Saturday night and reclaimed sole possession of first place in the MW. There are a handful of scenarios for the Aztecs to host or at least play in the championship game, but the easiest route is to win out and they’ll be back at Snapdragon Stadium on Dec. 5. There are five teams one game behind the Aztecs at 4-2.

It’s already been a remarkable turnaround from coach Sean Lewis’ first season, when the Aztecs were 3-9 overall, 2-5 in the MW and lost their last six games. Winning the MW title would be a nice capper as the Aztecs move into the new-look Pac-12, along with four league rivals. San Jose State will stay behind in the MW.

San Jose State (3-7, 2-4) has had an inconsistent season, most recently losing at last-place Nevada 55-10 to run their losing streak to two. 

Additionally, coach Ken Niumatalolo fired his defensive coordinator and special teams coordinator earlier this week. 

Several outlets and media personnel have made their picks for the Week 13 matchup.  San Diego State is a 12.5-point favorite and the over/under is 49.5 points, according to FanDuel.

Here's a look at how a few prognosticators foresee the Spartans-Aztecs matchup playing out.

Bleacher Report: San Diego State 27, San Jose State 16

Bleacher Report’s David Kenyon is going with the Aztecs after picking against them for the third time in four games. 

Dimers.com: San Diego State 32, San Jose State 19

After simulating the outcome of the Spartans-Aztecs matchup more than 10,000 times, Dimers.com’s model gives San Diego State an 80% win probability on the moneyline to improve to 9-2 overall. It gives the Spartans a 50% chance to cover the spread, which is +12.5 points, and predicts a 53% chance for the 49.5-point over/under to go under.

ESPN SP+: San Diego State 33, San Jose State 16

Bill Connelly's SP+ model, a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measurement of college football efficiency, gives the Aztecs an 86% chance of a home win against the Spartans. This is the eighth straight game Connelly's metrics-based formulas picked the Aztecs to win, although they missed badly with the Hawaii game two weeks ago.

Odds Shark: San Diego State 37, San Jose State 27

Odds Shark's computer predicts SDSU will win, San Jose State will cover the 12.5-point spread and the total will go over. win, cover the spread and the 49.5-point total will go over. It predicts the Aztecs to win 36.5-27.2, which we’ll round to 37-27.

Sportsbook Wire: San Diego State 35, San Jose State 12

USA TODAY's sports betting site has San Diego State more than covering the 12.5-point spread and the score to go just under the 49.5-point over/under.

Odds are courtesy of FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.