San Diego State starting to show up in national media bowl projections

A 2-1 start has the Aztecs appearing in 2025 bowl projections ahead of Week 5

Sep 6, 2025; Pullman, Washington, USA; San Diego State Aztecs quarterback Jayden Denegal (4) throws a pass against the Washington State Cougars in the second half at Gesa Field at Martin Stadium. | James Snook-Imagn Images

San Diego State is a quarter of the way through the 2025 college football season, and the jury is still out on whether this team will be bowl eligible for the first time under coach Sean Lewis.

The Aztecs are off to a 2-1 start, including a huge 34-0 victory over Cal in Week 4 that will go a long way toward getting this team to six wins and a shot at winning a bowl game for the first time since 2021.

However, most national media analysts aren't quite ready to crown SDSU a bowl team just yet, with only three major sites including the Aztecs in bowl projections heading into Week 5.

A true road win over Northern Illinois on Saturday would almost certainly land San Diego State on more bowl projections, as it would give the Aztecs a 3-1 record heading into Mountain West play. SDSU would then need to win just three of its eight conference games in order to obtain bowl eligibility.

The schedule includes home bouts against Colorado State, Wyoming, Boise State, and San Jose State, as well as road games against Nevada, Fresno State, Hawaii, and New Mexico — not an easy schedule but certainly enough winnable games for the Aztecs to find themselves in bowl territory, which would be a big step up from Lewis' first year in 2024 when San Diego State went just 3-9.

Below is a look at the three national analysts who project SDSU to make a bowl game after Week 4's win over Cal, including the bowl and opponent:

Mark Schlabach, ESPN

First Responder Bowl: UCF vs. San Diego State

Schlabach has the Aztecs taking on Big 12 opponent Central Florida in the First Responder Bowl on Dec. 26. The Knights are 3-0 on the season with a narrow win over Jacksonville State, followed by a 68-7 thrashing of North Carolina A&T and then a comfortable 34-9 win over Bill Belichick and the North Carolina Tar Heels.

Next up for UCF is a true road game against Kansas State on Saturday to open up Big 12 play.

Oliver Hodgkinson, PFSN

Frisco Bowl: Troy vs. San Diego State

Hodgkinson of PFSN has San Diego State in the Frisco Bowl, taking on Sun Belt opponent Troy on Dec. 23 in Frisco, TX.

Troy is 2-2 on the year, with wins over Nicholls and at Buffalo and losses to Clemson on the road (by 11) and Memphis at home. The Trojans have a bye in Week 5 before starting conference play on Oct. 4 against South Alabama.

Pete Fiutak, College Football News

Arizona Bowl: Buffalo vs. San Diego State

Speaking of Buffalo, that is who Pete Fiutak of College Football News has San Diego State playing in the Arizona Bowl in Tucson on Dec. 27 as the MAC representative.

Buffalo is also 2-2 on the year, with the aforementioned loss to Troy as well as a Week 1 loss at Minnesota. The two wins have come against Saint Francis (45-6) and at Kent State, 31-28.