San Diego State vs. Texas State prediction: Can Aztecs overcome depleted roster in Pac-12 opener?
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The San Diego State Aztecs’ first-ever Pac-12 Conference game should be a festive occasion.
They’ve literally waited decades for this day, and even had to wait for a few years after the league was cobbled back together after a crazy conference realignment during the summer of 2023.
A new era for the Aztecs will begin with kickoff against Texas State at 7:30 p.m. Saturday at Snapdragon Stadium.
Finally, the first Pac-12 game ever for the Aztecs.
But along with the hoopla, there’s a sense of dread around this team.
SDSU comes in at 1-3 overall after losing three straight games, the worst being a 41-16 loss at Toledo last Saturday.
The Aztecs lost their top two running backs to injury in that game, senior Lucky Sutton and sophomore Javion “Chop” Kinnard, and then the full extent of a mumps outbreak became known.
ESPN reported that the Aztecs could be missing 10 opening day starters against the Bobcats.
If that’s the case, the Aztecs face a seemingly insurmountable hurdle. The oddsmakers certainly have noticed, moving the Aztecs from opening-line 4.5-point underdogs in their own stadium to 9.5-point underdogs.
Here are the top things that need to happen for the Aztecs to pull off an upset in their own stadium.
QB Jayden Denegal has to be more effective
With the running game hobbled by the absence of Sutton and Kinnard, Denegal has got to find the consistency that has been missing through the first four games.
The Aztecs have the seventh-rated passing offense in the eight-team league.
His completion percentage is 56.6 and his passer efficiency rating is just 113.93.
He’s thrown five interceptions along with five touchdowns through the first four games, including a 67-yard pick-6 at Toledo.
It would help immensely if wide receiver Bert Emanuel Jr. can play Saturday night after missing the Toledo game, without explanation from the Aztecs.
The big storyline of the offseason was Emanuel moving from backup QB to wideout in order to combine his big-play abilities with Denegal. But Emanual has only five catches for 60 yards and no touchdowns in three games.
Defense has to tighten up
The Aztecs had to massively rebuild their defense after losing nine starters off the unit that set the tone during a 9-4 resurgence last fall, including the Aztecs’ first bowl invitation in three seasons.
And it shows. The Aztecs have gone from holding UCLA scoreless in the Rose Bowl on Sept. 12 to giving up 28, 26 and 41 points in the three straight losses.
They have given up big touchdown passes in losses to James Madison and Toledo, and now they have to try to stop Bobcats redshirt sophomore QB Brad Jackson, who threw five touchdown passes in the first half of a 63-10 win against Incarnate Word.
Running backs have to hold their own
The Aztecs almost certainly have to try to get the passing game going.
That said, the two running backs left on the roster will have to at least try to take some of the pressure off.
With Sutton and Kinnard out and Christian Washington having left the team, the Aztecs are down to redshirt freshman Jordin Thomas and freshman Josiah Lucas. Thomas fumbled on his first carry against Toledo. Although the Rockets weren’t able to capitalize, Thomas wasn’t given the ball again.
Final score prediction
There’s just too much for the Aztecs to overcome.
Texas State 35, San Diego State 14.
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Bernie Wilson recently retired from The Associated Press after nearly 41 years, including stops in Spokane, Los Angeles and, for the final 33 years, San Diego. He grew up in Coeur d'Alene and graduated from the University of Idaho.