Updated bowl projection for San Diego State football

San Diego State appears to be a unanimous choice among prognosticators to play in the Los Angeles Bowl on Saturday, Dec. 13 at SoFi Stadium.

That, of course, means one thing: that the Aztecs are expected to win the Mountain West title in their final season in the league before jumping to the Pac-12.

That would put a nice holiday bow on the turnaround season the Aztecs are enjoying under second-year coach Sean Lewis.

The resurgent Aztecs (7-1, 4-0 MW) not only won their sixth straight game last Saturday, 24-7 at home against Wyoming, but they jumped into sole possession of the MW lead thanks to Fresno State’s blowout road win over defending league champion Boise State.

CBS Sports has projected an LA Bowl berth for the Aztecs for two weeks, and now everybody else is jumping on the bandwagon.

The LA Bowl, played at the $5 billion home of the Los Angeles Rams and Chargers of the NFL, matches the Mountain West champion against a Pac-12 legacy team.

BSU’s loss changed the MW dynamic big-time, making the Aztecs the only remaining team with a perfect MW record.

San Diego State Aztecs wide receiver Jordan Napier (2). | Photo courtesy of San Diego State University Athletics

The Aztecs still need to earn a spot in the MW championship game on Dec. 5 and then win it. So far they’re on track, but still have some tough games left. They’re at Hawaii on Saturday night and then host Boise State at Snapdragon Stadium on Nov. 15. They finish with San Jose State at home on Nov. 22 and then finish the regular season at New Mexico, which is bowl eligible under first-year coach Jason Eck.

The MW title game will match the two teams with the highest winning percentages. The team with the highest conference winning percentage outright will host the game.

Why all this matters

Led by its tough defense, SDSU is enjoying a big turnaround in Lewis’ second season as coach. After losing their last six games and finishing 3-9 last year, the Aztecs have now matched the 7-1 start of the 2021 team, which went to the MW title game _ which it lost to Utah State _ and finished 12-2.

SDSU played in 10 straight bowl games from 2010-2019.

It made consecutive appearances in 2021-2022 before missing the postseason in Brady Hoke’s final season as head coach in 2023 and Lewis’ first season last fall.

Bowl projections for San Diego State:

CBS Sports

Los Angeles Bowl, Dec. 13: San Diego State vs. Washington

CBS Sports was the first to project the Aztecs to the LA Bowl. This would be an easy trip for Aztecs fans, up the freeway to SoFi Stadium in Inglewood to cheer for SDSU against former Pac-12 member Washington, which is now in the Big Ten.

USA Today

Los Angeles Bowl, Dec. 13: San Diego State vs. California

USA Today has switched its Aztecs’ projection to the LA Bowl and envisions a rematch against the California Bears. The Aztecs stunned previously undefeated Cal 34-0 on Sept. 20, when SDSU’s defense first served notice of its ballhawking ways by returning two turnovers for touchdowns, including Chris Johnson’s 97-yard pick-6.

Kyle Bonagura, ESPN

Los Angeles Bowl, Dec. 13: San Diego State vs. Arizona

Bonagura also is aboard with the Aztecs in the LA Bowl, but against former Pac-12 and current Big 12 team Arizona. The Wildcats are 5-3 overall and 2-3 in the Big 12.

Mark Schlabach, ESPN

Los Angeles Bowl, Dec. 13, San Diego State vs. Arizona

Schlabach joins his colleague Bonagura in sending the Tecs up the freeway to SoFi. The last time these teams met, Arizona dominated 38-20 in the first game played at Snapdragon Stadium, on Sept. 3, 2022, when it was 100 degrees at kickoff.

Athlon Sports

Los Angeles Bowl, Dec. 13: San Diego State vs. Arizona

Athlon’s prediction makes it a hat trick for an Aztecs-Wildcats matchup in Inglewood.

Mountain West Connection

One expert at Mountain West Connection raised the possibility of the Aztecs playing in the LA Bowl as MW champions last week, and now they’re all on board. It does not project opponents.