Updated San Diego State bowl projections ahead of New Mexico matchup

For the first time in a few weeks, San Diego State is not a consensus pick to play in the Los Angeles Bowl as the Mountain West champion.

But most prognosticators still pick the Aztecs to be headed to Inglewood on Dec. 13 to play in the LA Bowl at SoFi Stadium, the futuristic, $5 billion home of the NFL’s Rams and Chargers. The LA Bowl matches the Mountain West champion against a Pac-12 legacy team.

The Aztecs remain in control of their own destiny for hosting the MW championship game on Dec. 5 in its final year in the league.

The easiest path for the Aztecs (9-2, 6-1 MW) to clinch the host spot is to win Friday afternoon at New Mexico (8-3, 5-2). The Aztecs go into the final weekend of the regular season with a one-game lead over Boise State, New Mexico and UNLV.

Kickoff Friday is at 12:30 p.m. PT and the game will air on CBS Sports Network.

The top two teams will meet in the MW title game.

If SDSU loses, it can still reach the MW title game, depending on results of other games.

San Diego State is coming off home wins against Boise State and San Jose State. New Mexico has won five straight games and is 5-0 at home.

Why all this matters

The Aztecs have turned around their fortunes in Sean Lewis’ second season as coach and are bowl eligible for the first time since 2002.

SDSU played in 10 straight bowl games from 2010-2019. It made consecutive appearances in 2021-2022 before missing the postseason in Brady Hoke’s final season as head coach in 2023 and Lewis’ first season last fall.

Bowl projections for San Diego State:

CBS Sports

Los Angeles Bowl, Dec. 13: San Diego State vs. Arizona

CBS Sports was the first to project the Aztecs to the LA Bowl several weeks ago and has switched the opponent a few times, now back to Arizona. This would be an easy trip for Aztecs fans, up the freeway to SoFi Stadium in Inglewood to cheer for SDSU.

USA Today

Los Angeles Bowl, Dec. 13: Arizona vs. New Mexico

After a three-week run of projecting SDSU to face Arizona, USA Today has dropped the Aztecs in favor of New Mexico.

Kyle Bonagura, ESPN

Los Angeles Bowl, Dec. 13: San Diego State vs. Arizona State

For the fourth straight week, Bonagura is predicting the Aztecs to the LA Bowl, but has changed the matchup from Arizona to Arizona State 8-3, 6-2 Big 12).

Mark Schlabach, ESPN

Los Angeles Bowl, Dec. 13, San Diego State vs. Washington

Schlabach continues to keep the Aztecs slotted into the LA Bowl and for the third straight week has them facing Washington (8-3, 5-3) of the Big Ten.

Athlon Sports

Los Angeles Bowl, Dec. 13: San Diego State vs. Washington

Athlon also keeps the Aztecs in the LA Bowl and for the third straight week has them facing the Huskies.

Mountain West Connection

The experts at Mountain West Connection remain on board with the Aztecs going to the LA Bowl. They do not project opponents.