Where San Diego State sits in ESPN’s FPI rankings after win over San Jose State
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The San Diego State Aztecs remained at No. 64 in ESPN's predictive rating system on Monday and their chances of winning the Mountain West have narrowed considerably.
The numbers perhaps are a precursor to what should be an interesting final weekend in the race for the two spots in the MW championship game on Dec. 5.
SDSU’s FPI rose to 0.6, but it was leapfrogged by UNLV and the Aztecs now sit third in the MW.
With one game left, the Aztecs’ projected won-loss record is now listed at 9.8-2.8. Their chances of winning out are down slightly to 27.8%.
The MW-leading Aztecs (9-2, 6-1) beat San Jose State 25-3 on Saturday night to remain in sole possession of first place in the league.
SDSU finishes the regular season at New Mexico (8-3, 5-2) on Friday afternoon.
What is the FPI?
The FPI is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
FPI in the Mountain West
Defending league champion Boise State moved up five spots to No. 49 and its FPI jumped from 3.3 to 4.6 after a 49-21 home win against Colorado State.
UNLV moved up four spots to No. 63 and its FPI is 0.8, just ahead of SDSU.
San Diego State’s chance of winning the conference title in its last season in the Mountain West dropped from 46% to 32%, with UNLV right behind at 31.9%. BSU is at 16.3%.
SDSU’s chance of reaching the College Football Playoff has dropped from 1.2% to 0.4%.
For the Aztecs, it’s simple: beat New Mexico on Friday and they’ll host the MW title game on Dec. 5. They can still make the title game if they lose, depending on the results of other games.
SDSU has a one-game lead over Boise State, New Mexico and UNLV. SDSU beat BSU 17-7 at home a week ago and missed UNLV this season.
What’s next
SDSU makes its final trip to Albuquerque as an MW member to face a similarly resurgent Lobos team. Kickoff is at 12:30 p.m. Friday at University Stadium. The game will air on CBS Sports Network.
New Mexico (8-3, 5-2) is ranked No. 75 and its FPI is -2.4. The Lobos have a 20% chance of winning the MW.
Next season, SDSU, BSU, Fresno State, Colorado State and Utah State will be playing in the reconfigured Pac-12.
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-bd678ba4dbad4f453246f539ee56a3b4.jpg "Bernie Wilson")
Bernie Wilson recently retired from The Associated Press after nearly 41 years, including stops in Spokane, Los Angeles and, for the final 33 years, San Diego. He grew up in Coeur d'Alene and graduated from the University of Idaho.