ESPN's Football Power Index Suggests Southern Miss Could Be Better Than Expected in 2026

While many media outlets are looking down their noses at Southern Miss' upcoming 2026 season, it's important to understand where those outlooks come from. Given that the Golden Eagles have a brand new head coach, rank last in the nation in returning production and have more than 70 new players, it's easy to understand how people on the outside looking in could doubt as much as they have.

However, not everything national media-related is piling on Southern Miss in the preseason. ESPN uses the Football Power Index, or FPI, to conduct predictions and expectations for all 138 FBS teams. And the FPI has, in contrast to some predictions, been somewhat kind to the Golden Eagles. Let's take a closer look.

Overall Win Predictions

Southern Miss Football | Three-Way Quarteback Battle | @SouthernMissFB

ESPN's FPI has Southern Miss ranked No. 87 out of 138 total teams. Despite being in the bottom half of overall teams, the Golden Eagles are predicted to have between five and seven wins, those being: Alcorn State, UConn, Arkansas State, Louisiana, ULM, Louisiana Tech and South Alabama.

There is also a potential eighth win, with Southern Miss at a 51.4 percent chance of beating Troy. Of the simulations run on Southern Miss football, the FPI predicts there is a 73.5 percent chance the Golden Eagles will achieve six wins in 2026. If the Golden Eagles did end up winning between five and seven games, it would align almost perfectly with our Southern Miss Golden Eagles On SI Football Preseason Roundtable Predictions.

Sun Belt Pecking Order

USM Blake Anderson — Golden Eagle Head Coach Blake Anderson addressing media at the Sun Belt Media Days. | Josh House

As stated above, Southern Miss is predicted to have at most seven wins, with a close toss-up in the Southern Miss-Troy game. Considering the above 50-percent games, Southern Miss is predicted to win at most 5 conference games. Along with this, the Golden Eagles are given a 24.5 percent chance to win the Sun Belt West Division, along with a 12.6 percent chance to win the Sun Belt as a whole.

The Golden Eagles are ranked third in the Sun Belt throughout the FPI Rankings. James Madison (75) and Old Dominion (85) are the other conference mates ranked above the Golden Eagles. The list below shows the conference ranking as a whole:

The Sun Belt Conference listed in order of their ranking in ESPN's Football Power Index. | Andy Baeuerle

Although Southern Miss has the biggest puzzle in college football this year, there are still several things to look forward to in the 2026 season. One important note about ESPN's FPI is that it changes throughout the season. For example, if Southern Miss isn't as impressive in the season opener against Alcorn State at The Rock, or in the Week 2 Auburn game on the road, the Golden Eagles may drop drastically. But if they beat Alcorn by 40-plus points and manage to even manage to put up a decent fight against Auburn, they may rise a good amount in the rankings.

At the end of the day, none of these kinds of preseason rankings carry much weight. ESPN's FPI is known to have its flaws. What truly matters is how first-year head coach Blake Anderson and his brand-new roster perform on the field when the season officially kicks off in a little over a month. Still, it's almost a breath of fresh air to see a national media ranking system have a hopeful outlook for a Southern Miss team that has many questions to answer.

Postseason Outlook

The Blake Anderson era begins in a game between Southern Miss Golden Eagles and Western Kentucky in the New Orleans Bowl. December 23, 2025 (Joe Harper/bgnphoto.com) | Blake Anderson | Joe Harper Photography

The FPI does not give a prediction for the bowl season, but it does give a prediction for the College Football Playoff. In this simulation, the Golden Eagles are given a 1.6 percent chance to make it to the College Football Playoff with the Group of Six bid.

As you may have expected, there is a very minimal chance of making it to and winning the CFP National Championship. If the Golden Eagles end up with five wins, they would have to hold out for a shortage of bowl teams at the conclusion of the season to make a bowl game. But if the Golden Eagles get between six and eight wins, potentially putting them within striking distance of a division or conference title, they could find themselves receiving an invitation to the Cure Bowl, Independence Bowl, New Orleans Bowl, 68 Ventures Bowl, and the Myrtle Beach Bowl are the standouts in that position.

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