CFP Championship Predictions, Why It Matters for Vols
The rematch is here. Alabama is set to meet Georgia for the second time in less than a month. Last time it was for the SEC Championship, this time the stakes are higher. It is for the National Championship. Georgia (13-1) enters as the three-seed but is favored by 2.5 points, while Alabama (13-1) enters as the one-seed but also the underdog.
It is odd to think that after Alabama defeated Georgia by a score of 42 to 24.
After each winning their playoff games pretty convincingly, the two are set to square off one more time for the CFP National Championship. The Volunteer Country staff offers their predictions for the game and explains why it matters for the Vols.
Dale
Just a few weeks ago we saw Alabama essentially dominate a very good Georgia football team. Again, despite the final score, Georgia is still a very good squad. Both, Alabama and Georgia won their playoff games pretty convincingly, especially Georgia as they controlled their game vs Michigan in every aspect. The college football world awaits the rematch between the Bulldogs and the Crimson Tide for the second time during the CFP era. I think Georgia may throw everything at Alabama this go around, understanding they can't rely on one dimension of the offense to beat a Nick Saban coached Alabama team.
Georgia is going to want to get the ground game working to take some pressure off of Stetson Bennett. This is going to be vital, because as we seen in the SEC Championship game, Alabama set out to slow the ground game down. You're not going to completely stop the Bulldogs running game as they have a stable of backs running behind a talented offensive line. Limiting big plays is a win for the defense. I would not be surprised to see Bennett come out throwing the ball to back the linebackers and secondary up a bit to open the run lanes. Unless Georgia comes out with a completely different approach, I'm not sure you see much different in Alabama's gameplan.
The Pick
I have Alabama winning a closer game 37 to 28.
Why It Matters
For Vol fans it is often hard to root for a rival team, especially when they are in the championship game. Long term speaking, it is less destructive for Tennessee that Alabama wins this game. Yes, although Alabama is a long-time rival of Tennessee, the Tide has dominated the Vols for over a decade with only like two games or so that were actually close at the end. Alabama is pretty much going to maintain their identity as long as Nick Saban is there. On the other hand, Tennessee has actually beaten Georgia twice in recent years (2015, 2016), along with having multiple games that have been competitive. All three schools recruit many of the same kids. Tennessee and Georgia really recruit heavily on the same kids and with them already holding an edge over Tennessee as far as recent wins, a championship would almost be a fatal blow in the rebuilding process. An in-division rival winning the national championship would change perception and give the Bulldogs a huge edge on the recruiting front could flat line the recruiting success that Tennessee has in the Peach State. As much as it hurts for either team to win, it is less detrimental for Tennessee for Alabama to win than it is for the Dawgs to win.
Jake
To me, this game doesn’t have the feel of a typical national championship game, simply because we saw these teams square off a month ago in Atlanta.
Granted, Georgia looked like it has most of this season when it dismantled Michigan in its semifinal.
And Alabama did…well, what Alabama does, against Cincinnati.
But that previous matchup between the Bulldogs and Tide showed several questionable points within Kirby Smart’s team, not the least of which was the quarterback play of Stetson Bennett.
Will we see Smart pull the same move as Saban and put his backup, JT Daniels, in for Bennett to try to save the game? That depends on how Bennett plays.
No matter which quarterback finishes the night for Georgia, though, I think the combo of Nick Saban, Bryce Young and an “underdog” Alabama defense will be too much to overcome, even with John Metchie sidelined by an ACL injury.
The Pick
Give me Alabama in a second-half rout, 34-14.
Why It Matters
In short, a Georgia win would make the East race even tougher for Josh Heupel than it already is.
Moreover, we already know Alabama is the king of college football.
So another crimson title wouldn’t disrupt the college football hierarchy nearly as much as a Georgia victory, even with the Bulldogs being favored.
In this case, as much as it may pain them, Tennessee fans would be wise to go with the “devil they know” — and root for Alabama.
CJ
This matchup is probably one of the least anticipated national championship games in awhile. Mainly because we saw this game just over a month ago. Both teams separated themselves from the rest of CFP in the semifinals to the tune of beat downs that were almost expected.. at least by everyone who follows the SEC. This might be the first season since both coaches have been at their schools that Georgia has more raw talent than Alabama on both sides of the ball, albeit by a small margin. Either way, when you look at both rosters they give away the blueprint on how to get to a championship.. it’s recruiting. 140 of the 170 scholarship players between the 2 schools were rated as a 4 or 5 star recruit out of high school.
So with both teams just absolutely loaded with talent, there’s 2 things that make the difference between them: gameplan and coaching. This is where I think Alabama has a huge advantage over Georgia. Nick Saban used to have a philosophy of running the ball and playing great defense to win championships. While you can still win a ton of games doing that, it’s not the landscape of college football anymore, and he’s adjusted to that. Georgia hs played teams throughout the regular season that were either far less talented than them (Tennessee and Florida) or had a game plan that fell right into what they do (Auburn, Kentucky and Arkansas). Once they played a team with an elite quarterback, equivalent talent and a game plan to be up-tempo and emphasizing the passing game, they gave up 41 points. That team was Alabama, who they play tonight.
Georgia has had a great year overall but still has not shown that they can keep up with elite passing attacks, especially when they run tempo like Alabama did in the SEC championship game. I think it’s the same story tonight. New playmakers emerge for Alabama and they win comfortably. Lastly, if there’s someone you do not ever bet against in college football.. it’s Nick Saban
The Pick
Alabama wins 38-20
Why It Matters
Now Clemson has almost fallen out of this group but there’s one thing that separates Georgia from the recent college football “big 3” of Alabama, Ohio State and Clemson.. and that’s a recent national championship. A win tonight and Georgia joins that elite company, which would be a setback for a Tennessee program that is in a rebuilding stage. Not only is Georgia in Tennessee’s division, but it’s a team Tennessee has to recruit against in a state they have to be able to land players out of, some years even more than they do the home state. Tennessee signed 9 players from the state of Georgia in the 2022 class and both of their 2023 commitments are from the peach state. There’s a ton of 2023 recruits in Georgia that Tennessee and Georgia will be battling for, and if Kirby Smart can show these kids that he can win a national title, it’ll make it that much harder for Tennessee to land the elite kids that they’re battling for.
Alabama is already established among the elites in college football and another championship will just be another accolade for Nick Saban. If you’re a Tennessee fan, then you don’t want Georgia to join that company because it will make the climb back that much harder. It’s painful for the older Tennessee fans especially to cheer for the tide, but a win for them hurts a lot less than a Georgia win would. Fortunately for the Tennessee fan base, they aren’t Auburn fans tonight.
Matt
What can I say that these guys have not already said. SEC Rivals squaring off in the College Football National yet again. This matchup probably is one of the least anticipated matchups in a long time. We have seen these two teams so much over the past five years, that it doesn't feel like a new chapter, instead it feels like, a re-run. I don't think tonight will be a re-run, though. I think tonight we get a new chapter.
The Pick
I have Georgia getting over the hump. 38-24.
Why It Matters
Tennessee has to get out of the East to continue climbing in the college football world. A Georgia win tonight would significantly impact that, in my opinion. Kirby Smart has recruited at an elite level, and a win would allow him to sell even more. Georgia is a hotbed for talent and they will have even more success on a national level. A Georgia win would change the narrative completely for the Smart & Co. and allow them to sustain what they have had over the last five years. A loss would cause even more doubt to creep in about getting over the hump against Alabama. An Alabama win does not change anything. Just another Alabama win. For Tennessee, I think it is better if it stays on the status quo. Georgia hasn't won national title in 42 years, the longer the drought extends, I think the better it is for the Vols to try and get back on track in the East.
