The Possibility of Texas Tech Baseball Making the Big 12 Tournament

As the old saying goes, "It is never over until it's over." Twelve Big 12 teams qualify for the conference tournament and currently, the Red Raiders are tied with Arizona for the final spot in the tournament.

Texas Tech's Kyeler Thompson. | Nathan Giese/Avalanche-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Hope is what Texas Tech baseball fans have, but the likelihood of the Red Raiders making the conference tournament is uncertain.

Texas Tech is 7-17 in conference play with the exact same Big 12 record as Arizona. They won their last game against in-state rival Baylor but are 4-10 in the last fourteen games. They have had a down season overall, with a current record of 23-24, but they have had their moments.

In early March, they were playing their best baseball of the season, beginning with a series sweep of Penn State. The Red Raiders had a record of 13-2 from February 17th to March 14th, even before that. However, since TCU swept them in a series in late March, their season has been on a downward trajectory ever since.

Here now is a look at Texas Tech baseball through the metrics, numbers, and analytics.

NCAA RPI Ranking: #132

Warren Nolan RPI Ranking: #132

D1Baseball RPI Ranking: #133

11point7 RPI Ranking: #132

Last Ten Games: 3-7

Home Record: 17-11

Road Record: 6-10

Neutral Record: 0-3

Strength of Schedule: 90

Quadrant 1 Record: 3-8

Quadrant 2 Record: 3-11

Quadrant 3 Record: 5-1

Best Wins of the Season: 13-3 win over Tarleton State, 4-1 victory over West Virginia, 11-4 win over Kansas, and a 10-5 victory over UTSA.

Here is the pathway and probability of Texas Tech qualifying for the Big 12 tournament.

The Red Raiders find themselves in a precarious spot in their hopes of making the Big 12 baseball tournament this season. Texas Tech baseball has a storied history as a program that made the College World Series in 2014, 2016, 2018, and 2019 but is currently fighting for a spot in the conference tournament.

The Big 12 Tournament will be played at Surprise Stadium in Arizona, and it will now feature the top 12 teams in the conference standings for the 2026 season. Texas Tech is currently 12th in the Big 12 with a 7-17 conference record. They are vying for the last spot with Arizona, and the best-case scenario is that they win the majority of their last six Big 12 games and Kansas State loses the majority of their remaining conference games to possibly get the 11th seed for the tournament.

Texas Tech is currently in the last qualifying spot for the conference tournament, just ahead of Arizona, based on tiebreakers. They are trying to leapfrog Kansas State as well, but they would likely have to win four of their last scheduled conference games to accomplish that task.

The team snapped a long, five-game conference losing streak by winning their last game against Baylor with an 8-3 victory. The Red Raiders, in conference play, host BYU and then go on the road to play Cincinnati.

The Red Raiders probably need to win at least three or four of their last six conference games to hold off both Arizona and Kansas State to guarantee they obtain one of the last two spots in the tournament. Their matchup is a “must-win” series for the Red Raiders, as winning two of three games is essential in putting them in the best position to make the conference tournament. BYU is currently in 8th place (12–12) and the Cougars have lost seven of their last ten games so winning the series at home is an achievable task for Texas Tech.

If Texas Tech can win at least two games against BYU, they may only need to win one game at Cincinnati. The Bearkats are currently in 6th place with a 13-11 conference record. Cincinnati has also won five straight games, and they have an outstanding 17-6 home record this season. On the other hand, road wins have been a significant problem for the Red Raiders this season, going 3-9 on the road in conference play thus far. If the Bearkats swept the Red Raiders on the road, the Red Raiders would see their chances of making the Big 12 tournament diminish.

The odds of making the tournament are around 40-50% for Texas Tech, as their odds of making the conference tournament are a toss-up right now, leaning slightly toward not making the tournament, more than slightly making it. However, they control whether they make the tournament, and the last two conference series will determine their fate.

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