What Texas Tech and Others Need to do to Avoid Being a No. 5 Seed in the Tournament
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Here is what the Red Raiders need to do to avoid the dreaded No. 5 seed of the NCAA Tournament.
Texas Tech needs to win their game on Thursday in the Big 12 tournament against the winner of the Iowa State and Arizona State games. It is an absolute must-win game for the Red Raiders to avoid getting a No. 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament and having to face an upset-minded No. 12 seed in the first round.
A victory in the quarterfinals likely secures the 4-seed for the big dance, but it is not a guarantee. A "one-and-done" showing in Kansas City in the conference tournament, especially after losing their last two regular-season games at home to TCU and on the road to a struggling BYU, would likely cause them to swap seeding with a projected five seed that makes a run in their conference tournament.
Team | Current Seed Projection | What helps TTU |
|---|---|---|
Vanderbilt | No. 5 Seed | An early exit in the SEC Tournament in the quarterfinals. |
Arkansas | No. 5 Seed | Another team from the SEC that could leapfrog them. A loss on Friday would be ideal for TTU. |
St. Johns | No. 5 Seed | They have a high NET ranking. A deep Big East tournament run could help them leapfrog TTU. |
Kansas | No. 4 Seed | A loss to the winner of the TCU/OK State game would help TTU. |
The Selection Committee focuses on "Quadrant 1" wins, so Texas Tech really benefits when the teams they beat earlier this season win their conference tournament games.
Texas Tech beat Arizona on the road this season, and if Arizona wins the Big 12 Tournament, that will make Tech's road win look even better.
The Red Raiders upset Duke in Madison Square Garden, and if Duke wins the ACC, that will make the Red Raiders look even better to the NCAA Tournament committee.
If LSU can somehow beat Kentucky and make a run in the SEC Tournament by winning a few games, that makes Texas Tech's "strength of schedule" better because the Red Raiders beat LSU in non-conference play.
Then there are the teams that could fall in the seeding line who are projected slightly higher than them that if they were to get upset in their conference tournament, it could help Texas Tech secure a No. 4 seed.
Team | Current Seed Projection | If they were to get upset |
|---|---|---|
Virginia | 4 | UVA losing in the quarterfinals would help TTU. |
Alabama | 4 | Losing by double digits in the quarterfinals may help TTU. |
Purdue | 3 or 4 | Them losing on Thursday in the B1G tournament would help since the Boilermakers defeated TTU earlier in the season. |
Here is a look at Texas Tech's resume for the NCAA Tournament selection committee.
NET Ranking: 15
T-Rank (barttorvik): 11
KenPom Ranking: 17
BPI Ranking (ESPN): 18
Home Record: 14-2
Away Record: 5-5
Neutral Court Record: 3-2
Quad-1-Record: 7–8
Quad-2-Record: 5–1
Quad-3-Record: 7–0
Quad-4-Record: 3–0
What helps the Red Raiders the most are their road wins against Iowa State and Arizona, who are both top eight teams in the NET Rankings, which stands for the NCAA Evaluation Tool Rankings used to assess team performance. Their win on a neutral court against Duke always helps them greatly for their tournament resume. Their best home win against Houston helps as well, and even their losses against Arkansas, Purdue, and Illinois don't hurt their resume, as those were quadrant one defeats.
If Texas Tech wins on Thursday, they will very probably be a 4-seed. If they make it to the Big 12 Championship game, they might even be a 3-seed. But if they lose their first game in the conference tournament on Thursday, they will have to wait and see how teams like Arkansas, Purdue, and St. John's do in their conference tournaments.
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Ryan Kay is a journalist who graduated from Michigan State in 2003 and is passionate about covering college sports and enjoys writing features and articles covering various collegiate teams. He has worked as an editor at Go Joe Bruin and has been a contributor for Longhorns Wire and Busting Brackets. He is a contributor for Texas Tech On SI.