Can Kerwin Walton Break the UNC Freshman Three-Point Curse?

No freshman in the Roy Williams era has made 40 percent of his three-pointers while attempting at least 50. Will Kerwin Walton be the first?

Author:
Isaac Schade
Jan 5, 2021 8:00 AM EST

Back in June I wrote an article pondering the following question: Does UNC have a freshman three-point shooting curse?

After poring over the data I discovered that no freshman in the Roy Williams era has made 40 percent or more of their three-pointers (minimum 50 attempts).

14 freshmen in the Roy Williams era qualify for this list and the highest percentage is 37.7 percent. Any guesses as to who that is? You probably won’t get it right because this player was not known as a shooter, but rather as the ACC record-holder for most assists in a single season (351 in 2011-12).

That’s right Kendall Marshall, of all people, has the highest three-point field goal percentage of every freshman in the Roy Williams era who attempted 50 or more threes. Here’s the entire list:

Kendall Marshall (2010-11) - 37.7% (20-53)
Wayne Ellington (2006-07) - 37.1% (66-178)
Ty Lawson (2006-07) - 35.6% (31-87)
Danny Green (2005-06) – 35.5% (27-76)
Coby White (2018-19) - 35.3% (82-232)
Cole Anthony (2019-20) - 34.8% (49-141)
Harrison Barnes (2010-11) - 34.359% (67-195)
Marcus Paige (2012-13) - 34.351% (45-131)
Bobby Frasor (2005-06) - 31.0% (27-87)
Justin Jackson (2014-15) - 30.4% (28-92)
Reggie Bullock (2010-11) - 29.6% (29-98)
PJ Hairston (2011-12) - 27.3% (38-139)
Nassir Little (2018-19) - 26.9% (14-52)
Leslie McDonald (2009-10) – 20.8% (11-53)

What will it take for someone to break this 40 percent threshold? Who is the man to do it?

For your consideration: Kerwin Walton.

Yes, Kerwin Walton, the least heralded of the six-man class of 2020 (scholarhip players) for UNC.

According to the 247 Sports Composite rankings:

#14 – Caleb Love
#15 – Day’Ron Sharpe
#22 – Walker Kessler
#47 – RJ Davis
#66 – Puff Johnson
#127 – Kerwin Walton

Walton was outside the top 100 recruits coming into the season. His five classmates were each top 75. But none of those rankings matter when you step on the court. What matters is putting the ball in the basket and stopping your opponent from doing the same.

And Kerwin Walton can put the ball in the hole.

The greatest asset for the 2020-21 Tar Heels is the depth and talent of the frontcourt: the aforementioned Sharpe and Kessler join veterans Garrison Brooks and Armando Bacot to form perhaps the most formidable frontcourt in America. If not the most formidable in the country, this group has to be top-five.

The problem is that it doesn’t matter how good your post players are offensively if no one else can hit outside shots, because teams will sag off poor shooters to more ably guard the post. Such has been the case so far this year for Carolina.

Let’s put this year’s bad shooting in context. Last season, the Tar Heels made 30.4 percent (181-595) of their threes, the worst percentage in program history. Now for the first time ever, Carolina is shooting under 30 percent as a team. Through 10 games UNC is making 28.7 percent (47-164) of their three-point attempts.

Enter Kerwin Walton.

Through the first eight games, Walton was seeing limited playing time, never more than 14-and-a-half minutes, which he got against Kentucky. In those first eight games, Walton shot well from the perimeter, albeit in a small sample size. In that time frame he made five of 12 attempts (41.7 percent). However, since being inserted into the starting lineup two games ago, he’s played more minutes (22 and 27) and shot even better from deep.

He’s made seven of 12 three-point attempts since joining the starting rotation, bringing his season average up to precisely 50 percent (12 of 24).

Walton still needs 26 three-point attempts to qualify to be the best freshman three-point shooter, percentage-wise, of the Roy Williams era. In order to stay above the 40 percent threshold, Walton would need to make eight of those next 26 attempts.

Here’s the beautiful thing: While he’s a knockdown shooter, he’s not just a three-point specialist. So far, Walton has 18 assists and just eight turnovers, a 2.3 assist-to-turnover ratio. In the two games since he’s been inserted into the starting lineup, Walton has seven assists and just two turnovers, a 3.5 assist-to-turnover ratio. It’s also evident that Walton cares about defense. While he is certainly not perfect defensively, he clearly has the want-to and desire to be a solid defensive player which is what playing defense is all about.

So is Kerwin Walton the man to do it? Can he hit 40 percent or more of his three-pointers as a freshman? Will the curse be forever broken?

He’s certainly on the right track, but has a long way to go.

In closing, perhaps this is a bold statement, but I would go so far as to say that Carolina’s long-term success this season is largely dependent upon Walton’s ability to be a “floor-stretcher”. The Tar Heels need to run the offense through their big men, but they can only do so if the paint is free and clear of extra defenders.

Here's to Kerwin Walton, the man to break the curse.

Make sure to tune in as Walton and the Tar Heels take on Miami tonight (Tuesday, January 5) at 8:00pm ET on ESPN.

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