The UNLV Runnin' Rebels Will Look To Defend Their Home Court Against The New Mexico Lobos

The UNLV Runnin' Rebels men's basketball team will host the New Mexico Lobos tonight. UNLV enters the game at 5 - 3 in the Mountain West Conference, and New Mexico is currently 7 - 2 in conference play. With the game just hours away, the predictions are rapidly pouring in now. The next prediction we are covering comes from Tanner McGrath of Action Network. This one is not a prediction that UNLV fans are going to be happy about.

Action Network's Prediction For New Mexico Lobos @ UNLV Runnin' Rebels

"I’ve long been a believer in Eric Olen, and he’s settled in nicely in his first year as head coach of the Lobos. The team is 7-2 in Mountain West play with the conference’s best defense.

At the same time, I’m not a believer in Josh Pastner, who has had an up-and-down first season in Las Vegas. Yes, the Rebels are 5-2 in Mountain West play, but I think it’s mainly because of hot shooting. Over their past three wins against Utah State, San Jose State, and Boise State, they shot 25-for-58 from 3 (43%), while those three opponents shot just 16-for-49 (32%).

Ultimately, that leads me to believe these Rebels are overvalued.

Olen’s Lobos are going to attack via his unique ball-screen designs, while I don’t trust UNLV’s ball-screen coverage (.91 PPP allowed, 43rd percentile).

On the other end of the court, the Rebels like to attack in isolation, getting to the rim and drawing fouls. But the Lobos are an elite ISO defense (.71 PPP allowed, 87th percentile), and they boast the MWC’s second-lowest free-throw rate allowed.

The Lobos also tend to pack it in on defense, while the Rebels rank 10th in the conference in 3-point attempt rate. Just because they’ve been hitting them lately doesn’t mean they’re comfortable from out there, but you basically have to beat Olen’s defense over the top.

I like this matchup for New Mexico and agree with my projection. I hope the line drops.

My Pick: New Mexico -5 or Better"

This is a completely reasonable prediction, but we have to disagree. UNLV is going to show up and defend their home court in this game. We are predicting an upset in this game. The Rebels are going to escape with a close win. It will be hard fought, but UNLV is going to show everyone they are for real with another big home win. Head coach Josh Pastner has spoken about having to be better at defending their home court, and that begins tonight.

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