UNLV Runnin' Rebels Need To Avoid Overlooking The San Jose State Spartans

The UNLV Runnin' Rebels men's basketball team will be tipping off tonight in Las Vegas against the San Jose State Spartans. UNLV is coming off a huge 80 - 78 win over the Grand Canyon Lopes, which snapped a four-game losing streak. With the Rebels back at .500 at 6 - 6 in the Mountain West Conference, they will look to keep their momentum going at the Thomas & Mack Center against the Spartans.

This is a game that the Rebels should come out of with a win, and the predictions are reflecting that. The latest prediction we are covering comes from Tanner McGrath from Action Network. While they do believe that the Spartans will keep this game within 13 points, they clearly also believe that the Rebels will win this game because they wouldn't take the Spartans getting nine points.

Action Network's Prediction For San Jose State Spartans @ UNLV Runnin' Rebels

"UNLV beat up on the Spartans in San Jose last month, winning 76-62. However, the Rebels shot a scorching 11-for-23 (48%) from 3, and any amount of shooting regression likely results in a single-digit ballgame — ShotQuality graded that game as a six-point UNLV win based on the “quality” of shots taken by both teams.

Additionally, this is an obvious sandwich spot for the Rebels, who just pulled off a big upset win over Grand Canyon on Saturday and might be looking ahead to a big road showdown with Boise State on Friday.

It’s worth mentioning that UNLV has been one of the most inconsistent teams nationally this season, ranking 332nd in Haslametrics’ Consistency factor. It would be very Rebel-like to play down to the 6-17 Spartans at home in this spot.

Schematically, I don’t trust the Rebels’ ball-screen coverage (.88 PPP allowed, 15th percentile) against San Jose State’s PNR-heavy attack. Meanwhile, UNLV is isolation-heavy, and the Spartans are an above-average ISO defense (.79 PPP allowed, 56th percentile)...

My Pick: San Jose State +12 or Better"

This is a reasonable take. The Rebels should win this game, but 12 points is a big number for an inconsistent team. However, we do hope they are wrong about overlooking the Spartans coming off a big win with a big game against the Boise State Broncos on the horizon. We expect the Rebels to win this game by about eight or nine points.

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