Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
3 Bold Predictions For Blue Jays' 2023 Season
Time to fire up the ol' crystal ball.
Opening Day is just a few sleeps away, and I've got some hunches I want to get down on paper—just in case they're right. Below, I'll break down my three bold(ish) predictions for the Blue Jays' 2023 campaign, along with some vivid hypothesize on how the prophecies become reality:
1. Varsho Hits 35
It's September 30th. Daulton Varsho stares down with a stone face as he bolts unnecessarily fast around the bases. As Rays starter Drew Rasmussen resets on the mound, Varsho touches the plate and breaks into a coordinated handshake with Matt Chapman, jumping up to smash biceps with the 3B. It's the final homer of Varsho's season, but he's long passed his career high. The outfielder finishes with 35 dingers, second on the team behind only Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
We're not asking for an enormous jump, as Varsho hit 27 homers with the Diamondbacks last year. But, the lefty has plenty working for his power in 2023. Rogers Centre (9th in HR factor) was already a vastly more power-friendly park than Varsho's old haunt, Chase Field (25th). Toronto's outfield walls are now even shorter and closer after offseason renovations, especially in the slugger's lefty power alley.
Just looking at Varsho's non-homer spray chart (below), he would've added at least seven more knocks playing all his games at last year's Rogers Centre. Half his games remain on the road, but move those home fences in a bit further, as they are in 2023, and Varsho's bound for a big year.
Varsho's 2022 spray chart (not including homers) overlaid on Rogers Centre's 2022 dimensions.
Baseball Savant
The power output is basically a sure thing for Varsho this year, but his true keys will be consistency and contact. He had a few blistering months in 2022, blasting nine homers in September and hitting over .300 with a .900 OPS in May. But, he also had some inhospitably cold streaks (looking at that .176 batting average and .488 OPS in June, yeesh).
Given Varsho's defensive value, the Jays will ride spells of both hot and cold this year, keeping him in the lineup for the glove alone. But, if the 26-year-old finds consistency, he'll take his game from borderline All-Star to MVP candidate.
2. Kikuchi Strikes Out 175
It's July 21st, and the Blue Jays need Yusei Kikuchi. Following a bullpen game gone sour, Toronto travels across the continent to play the Mariners. The lefty starter has had flashes of brilliance and bad so far, but he brings the good stuff on the West Coast: seven innings, 11 strikeouts, two earned runs, and some much needed rest for the 'pen. Kikuchi isn't without clunkers for the rest of the season, but performances like that Seattle start help him set a career-high in Ks, finishing with 175 on the season.
For all of Kikuchi's struggles in 2022, strikeouts were not one. The lefty finished with 123 Ks in 100.2 innings and lead the Jays in K/9. His 27.3% strikeout rate was better than Luis Castillo, Zack Wheeler, Yu Darvish, and Shane Bieber's.
The high strikeout rate was aided by a stint in the bullpen to the end the year, and the Jays would trade Ks for consistent innings from their fifth starter, for sure. But, if Kikuchi's preseason tweaks help him find enough stability to provide Toronto even 140 or 150 innings, the high strikeout totals will naturally come.
I even toyed with 200 punchies for this Kikuchi prediction, but I'm not sure he'll get the required innings. Even if the southpaw brings reliability this year, I doubt Toronto pushes him three times through the order often. Kikuchi will probably get the Ross Stripling treatment to start the year, and if he performs anywhere near Stripling level, the Blue Jays will be thrilled.
High Blue Jays Strikeout Rates Since 2000 (min. 100 IP)
- Robbie Ray (2021): 32.1%
- Brandon Morrow (2010): 28.3%
- Kevin Gausman (2022): 28.3%
- Alek Manoah (2021): 27.7%
- J.A. Happ (2018): 27.4%
- Yusei Kikuchi (2022): 27.3%
3. Blue Jays Win Division
The last time players danced on Toronto's turf, it was a circle of high-kicking Mariners. Now, it's Kevin Kiermaier double-fisting champagne bottles, bopping to the 90s music filling an empty Rogers Centre. An hour after Toronto topple the Yankees in a late-September rubber match to officially clinch the division, Kiermaier and the rest of the Jays sprawl across the pitcher's mound in their playoff shirts for a team photo.
Is this prediction even that bold? FanGraphs' 2023 season projections give Toronto a 27% shot at winning the AL East (compared to New York's 44.4%).
We've talked all winter and spring about Toronto's potential pitfalls—a major injury or a test of rotation depth could send them sideways. But, this is also an elite baseball team that won 92 games last year and got better. The Jays' defense will be noticeably improved, Berríos and Kikuchi bounce backs could take the rotation into elite, and the bullpen's upside and depth are Toronto's strongest since '16.
This prediction is as much about the Yankees as the Jays, too. New York's a really good team, but they're also one of the oldest squads in baseball coming off an impressively healthy season. We've already seen the injury bug bite the Bombers with Carlos Rodon, Luis Severino, Harrison Bader, and Frankie Montas suffering preseason ailments, and those setbacks could be all the Jays need to close the divisional gap.
Maybe the Red Sox, Rays, or Orioles shock the world and snatch the East, but it seems like an inevitable two-horse race between New York and Toronto right to the wire. Six of the Blue Jays' final 12 games come against the Yankees in September, so prepare for late-season nail biting.
FanGraphs 2023 AL East Chances
- New York Yankees: 44.4%
- Toronto Blue Jays: 27%
- Tampa Bay Rays: 22.6%
- Boston Red Sox: 5%
- Baltimore Orioles: 1.1%
