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Blue Jays Mailbag: Toronto's Next Move, Breakout Candidates, the DH Spot, and More
Only 10 days into the MLB lockout, I turned to you for some Toronto Blue Jays topics.
Thankfully, you delivered.
Shoutout to everyone who submitted questions, I did my best to distill topics with overlap to cover as much ground as possible here. This mailbag includes some notes on Toronto's catching situation, the DH spot, some more offseason targets, and a potential breakout bat.
What do you think the catching situation will look like opening day? What about when Moreno gets the call? (Samuel B.)
Barring injuries or a catching trade, it's hard to see a tandem other than Alejandro Kirk and Danny Jansen breaking camp with the Jays this year.
Gabriel Moreno will almost certainly start in the minors, with just three Triple A games under his belt, and Reese McGuire will enter camp once again with a tough path to avoid waivers.
I'm not sure there will be much of a catching controversy if or when Moreno proves he's MLB ready, and you need only look to Toronto's most recent accelerated top prospect to show why. When Alek Manoah jumped to the bigs early last season it had a lot to do with his Triple A performance, but there was also a gaping hole in Toronto's rotation. Trent Thornton and Anthony Kay started two of Toronto's previous five games prior to Manoah joining the rotation, and the Jays entered his big-league debut losing six of seven. I see a similar path for Moreno, needing his own success to coincide with poor performance or injury to one of Toronto's big-league backstops.
If Toronto's MLB catchers and Moreno stay healthy and rake all season—a great problem to have—there are other ways to get the top prospect onto the 26-man roster. The Jays have already shown a willingness to get him work at third base and there's a DH spot that's not currently spoken for (more on that later).
What should be the Blue Jays biggest move once the off-season resumes? (Christopher R.)
I've felt for most of the offseason that a pitching or infield trade was inevitable, and that feeling has only grown stronger.
The Blue Jays have clear and admitted needs for another starter and at least one infielder, and the trade market holds plenty of options for both. Guys like Kris Bryant or Carlos Rodon in FA would fill Toronto's needs, but the contracts they'll warrant individually would push the budget to the brink and mid-tier options behind them are scarce. Addressing at least one of the holes via trade seems likely and helps Toronto stay financially flexible.
Taking a brief seat in the GM chair to address the 'should' part of this question, I'd be dialing up the AL's Bay Area team. The Oakland Athletics will be sellers once transactions resume and they have at least three arms who present an elite floor for Toronto's rotation and a couple infielders who could work, too. I took a look at Oakland's top trade fits for the Jays earlier this winter.
Who will be a breakout player for the Jays in 2022 and why is it Julian Merryweather? (Garth I.)
There are obvious breakout opportunities for Merryweather, Kirk, and Nate Pearson but I'll refrain from restating those cases and offer up another suggestion: INF/OF Otto Lopez.
Sometimes lost in the shuffle of Toronto's MLB and upper-minors depth, Lopez is on Toronto's 40-man roster, will get a long look at Spring Training, and has enough defensive versatility to be an early call-up or injury replacement for basically any position next year.
The right-handed hitter scaled Toronto's Double and Triple A affiliates last season, earning a single plate appearance at the big league level. There's still some work to come against righties, but Lopez flashed an elite walk rate against southpaws all year (over 11% in both minor-league levels). The jump to Triple A didn't seem to impact Lopez much, as he posted a .874 OPS for the Bisons in September and notched more RBI than strikeouts.
The 23-year-old lacks an elite tool but has skills that will surely translate to the big leagues—high contact rate, speed—and evaluators and members of the organization rave about his athleticism and work ethic. Lopez's ceiling will be defined by progression in extra-base power and success against the strong side of the platoon.
What will the Jays do with the DH Spot? (Luke R.)
Forced to make a prediction, I'd bet the Jays navigate the DH in the same way they did last season. If Randal Grichuk remains a Blue Jay heading into 2022 you can use the DH spot to get all four outfielders in the lineup regularly, get everyday bats like Bo Bichette and Vlad Guerrero Jr. off their feet, and hold a spot for banged-up guys like George Springer last year.
Looking outside the organization, I haven't heard anything credible linking these names to the Jays yet this offseason, but free agents Kyle Schwarber and Joc Pederson could make sense as potential DH options.
Both are defensively limited and would jumble an already crowded Blue Jay outfield, but a high walk-rate, left-handed power bat to back up in the corner OF spots, play some first base, and regularly DH would bring something entirely new to Toronto's 26-man roster. Yes, Freddie Freeman fits a few of those descriptors, too. But, like Shi Davidi pointed out earlier this week, the cost is high and the fit is tough. I wouldn't buy your Freeman Blue Jay jersey just yet.
