Blue Jays Went All-In On Outfield Defense. Was It Worth It?

The Blue Jays' offseason moves brought in the best defensive outfield in baseball, at a cost.

TORONTO — The Blue Jays didn't hide their offseason agenda.

Throughout the winter, Toronto swapped out a few big outfield bats for a fresh defensive priority. At a granular level, it worked. Toronto's new defensive alignment — featuring Daulton Varsho and Kevin Kiermaier — ranks first in baseball, with more than double the defensive runs saved (42) of any other OF unit.

But, we can't just look at the moves in isolation. Defense is only as valuable as the wins it helps bring, right? So, were Toronto's offseason priorities appropriate? And what has that new defensive value brought across the roster?

Pick your outfield defensive metric of choice: DRS, UZR, OAA. The worst Toronto's defenders collectively rank is fourth among MLB's 30 teams. In a series of winter moves, the Jays essentially swapped out -6 outs above average in Teoscar Hernandez and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. for +21 OAA in Varsho and Kiermaier. By shifting George Springer over to right, the Jays, as Varsho puts it, now have three centerfielders manning the turf nearly every day.

“When you look at our outfield, we got a bunch of centerfielders playing everywhere," Varsho said. "I think it’s just a combination of, we’re all really good at it but we’re also really good at communicating and knowing which balls we can get to.”

If you go by DRS, the Varsho/Kiermaier/Springer outfield has saved the Jays 46 runs this season compared to the Gurriel/Springer/Hernandez trio from a year ago. That's almost eight percent of Toronto's entire runs against this season — the difference between them ranking fourth and 16th in runs allowed.

Bounce-back seasons from José Berríos and Yusei Kikuchi have certainly factored into Toronto rocking the second-best ERA in MLB this year, but going from bad to best in outfield defense helps, too.

Varsho ran back to to the wall in a September contest against the Royals, darting across the warning track before leaping in the air. As the left fielder's chest slammed into the padded wall, a high fly ball fell just into the leather of his outstretched glove. As Varsho came down with the fourth-inning catch, starter Kevin Gausman shot his arm up on the mound, celebrating the latest highlight-reel grab from Toronto's outfield alignment.

Per Gausman, the improved outfield defense does more than simply corral a few extra fly balls. Knowing they have the league's best outfield trio on the turf allows the pitchers to attack the zone more, especially early in counts. It doesn't necessarily impact pre-game planning, but there's a subconscious impact there, Gausman said. Manager John Schneider equates the outfield defense to a 100 MPH fastball. You still have to execute, but they allow for an increased margin for error.

“We’re still attacking these guys and trying to make our pitches, and make pitches out of the zone too," Gausman said. "But, early in the count, knowing those guys are out there and always in a good position … you definitely get to throw more strikes knowing that you have guys behind you in the outfield."

So, Toronto's revamped defensive outfield has been the best on paper in baseball and has unlocked the pitching staff to pound the strike zone and rack up one of the league's best ERA. Then why are the Jays on pace to win fewer games than last year? Because that defensive investment has come at a significant offensive cost.

The Jays are on pace to allow 10 fewer runs than last year's squad. But, they're also heading toward scoring 42 fewer. The defensive jump from Gurriel and Hernandez to Varsho and Kiermaier has also brought holes to the lineup. It's an undeniable change in approach, one Schneider refers to as a change in characteristics.

"It's the best in baseball, the outfield defense, so that you love," Schneider said. "And then I think that just the characteristics of the guys that we added compared to subtract it, they're a little bit different. So it's affected us offensively a little bit."

As much as some want to scoff at baseball math, the game is a pretty simple formula: runs scored minus runs allowed. Raise the former or lower the latter, and you're playing better baseball. The Jays tried to bring down the runs allowed to tack on a few extra wins and an unexpectedly large dip in the runs scored category accompanied.

In isolation, Toronto's offseason agenda was a resounding success — they got much better defensively. But, the cost of that success may have been too steep. The Blue Jays have a few weeks to punch in the final numbers to that formula.