How the Toronto Blue Jays Can Make the Postseason

With 40 games remaining, the Blue Jays still have a shot at the 2021 MLB postseason

During their most important stretch of the season to date, the Toronto Blue Jays scuffled.

With a 3-7 record in their last 10 games, dropping three-straight series against non-playoff teams, and losing ground in a tight postseason race, Toronto's bid for October baseball took a hit. FanGraphs now has the club at a 10.7% chance to make the postseason, FiveThirtyEighty at 15%, and Baseball Reference is most optimistic at 18.7%.

They're nowhere near mathematical elimination and the playoffs are still attainable, but the Blue Jays' playoff path is narrowing.

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The common conception is that a Major League Baseball team must win at least 90 games to make the playoffs, but recent reality in the American League shows that threshold can be much higher. In 2019, the second AL Wildcard spot belonged to the 96-win Tampa Bay Rays, and in 2018 the 97-win Oakland Athletics. 

With 40 games remaining in the 2021 season, the second AL Wildcard spot belongs to the tied Athletics and Boston Red Sox — on pace for 90.72 wins. To best that mark, the Blue Jays will need to win 27 of their final 40 contests.

In Toronto's best 20 games stretch of the season (July 24th - August 11th) the Blue Jays won 14 games — a 70% win rate. Assuming the Blue Jays will need at least 90 wins, and likely more, Toronto must play the best baseball of their season to vault back into October contention — without George Springer.

Blue Jays Remaining Schedule (opponent win percentage):

4 vs. Chicago White Sox (.576)
3 @ Detroit Tigers (.476)
3 vs. Baltimore Orioles (.309)
3 vs. Oakland Athletics (.560)
4 @ New York Yankees (.581)
4 @ Baltimore Orioles (.309)
3 vs. Tampa Bay Rays (.616)
3 vs. Minnesota Twins (.435)
3 @ Tampa Bay Rays (.616)
4 @ Minnesota Twins (.435)
3 vs. New York Yankees (.581)
3 vs. Baltimore Orioles (309)

Of the Red Sox, Mariners, Athletics, and Blue Jays (the four teams jockeying for WC2 positioning), Toronto has the second-easiest remaining schedule, almost identically rated to Boston's. However, if the Jays play to their opponent's win percentage for the rest of the season, they'll add just 19.31 wins to their current 64. If they play to their own current win rate (.525), they'll add 21 wins.

Even with winnable games on the schedule, Toronto's remaining slate also works against them in some ways. The Blue Jays have just three games against teams they are directly chasing, and Toronto must jump at least two squads to play in October. If Toronto can win 75% of their remaining games against sub-.500 squads, they still must win 11 of 20 contests against their tougher remaining opponents.

While 25 wins would seem to give them a chance, and 28 a solid claim on a postseason spot, perhaps most frustrating is the lack of certainty — even 30 wins may not be enough for the Blue Jays. 

There are many paths to October still for Toronto, with a team or team ahead falling off, a magical run, busted slumps, orsome late-inning luck. But, at least one thing is clear: the 2021 Blue Jays must be their very best version for the next five weeks to keep their World Series hopes alive.