Stabilized Rotation the Key to Blue Jays' Bullpen Struggles

Toronto's starting rotation could be the key to the Blue Jays' bullpen success.

Kevin Gausman led the Blue Jays to a rare stress-free victory on Monday. 

The righty delivered seven shutout innings, reached a season-high in pitches, and handed some low-leverage frames to David Phelps and Shaun Anderson to clean up the Red Sox.

That recipe hasn't been used much by Toronto lately, though. Blue Jays starters have delivered just four quality starts in the last 11 games, the team has played in the second-most one-run games in the league, and Toronto's bullpen has pitched the fifth-most innings in June. Toronto relievers have struggled of late, with one of the league's worst 'pen ERAs this month, but starts like Gausman's make the entire pitching staff better, and the Jays need more like it.

"Our bullpen has thrown a lot and more lately," manager Charlie Montoyo said after Gausman's Monday outing. "So we needed something like that."

There's a clear need for more swing-and-miss in Toronto's bullpen and probably another reliable arm, but the Blue Jays' 'pen is not without talent. Toronto’s four most-used high leverage relievers this year (Jordan Romano, Adam Cimber, Yimi García, and Tim Mayza) all have ERAs under 4.0 and FIPs under 3.7. But, much like last year, getting to those late-game weapons has been a struggle at times.

When Toronto's bullpen is tasked with covering more than four innings in a game, the unit has a 4.72 ERA. When the 'pen pitches four or fewer innings (3.96 ERA) and three or fewer (3.56) the performance is exactly where you'd want it to be. In high leverage situations in the eighth and ninth innings, Toronto relievers have the seventh-best ERA in baseball. From the fifth to seventh frames the unit's ERA jumps to 4.88.

Blue Jays Bullpen ERA by innings pitched in a game

Barring a string of complete games from Toronto’s rotation, the Jays’ bullpen will pitch the most innings in a month since August 2020 this June. Even when the bullpen was at its worst last season, in May, it was still only called on for 105 frames, less than Toronto's pace this month

In 2021, Gausman and José Berríos both ranked within MLB’s top 10 in innings pitched, Alex Manoah averaged over 6 IP per start, and Yusei Kikuchi was at 5.4. This June, only Manoah is averaging over six innings per start and Kikuchi sits a touch over three. Toronto’s rotation has 12 quality starts in June, but also four games where the starter hasn’t finished the third inning.

In April and May, Toronto's bullpen had a 4.02 ERA and pitched the eighth-fewest innings in baseball. In June, they've got the fifth-worst ERA (4.94) and the fifth-most innings pitched. Expecting seven shutout innings from each starter every time through the rotation is a fool's dream, but there's a clear line to draw between workload and productivity.

Toronto will add to the bullpen in the next month, but the current personnel have proven capable of covering four innings. Bringing in more swing-and-miss and late-game help will help, but stabilizing the Blue Jays' bullpen starts with the rotation.