Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports
A Guide to the Toronto Blue Jays Game 162 and a Path to Playoff Baseball
The Toronto Blue Jays have played 161 games, and still, nothing has been decided, yet.
With a late-night Seattle Mariners win, the Jays are one of four teams within a single game for the final two American League playoff spots. Lose on Sunday and Toronto's season ends. But win, and the Blue Jays could insert themselves into one of the most chaotic regular season finishes in recent MLB history.
The relevant matchups for Blue Jays fans on the crazy final day are as follows. All matchups start at about the same time, increasing the opportunity for emotional swings and heartbreaking finishes:
Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees — 3:05 p.m.
Boston Red Sox @ Washington Nationals — 3:05 p.m.
Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays — 3:07 p.m.
How Toronto Can Force 163:
The Blue Jays cannot clinch a playoff spot Sunday, but they can claim the opportunity to fight in a Game 163 (and perhaps 164) to earn that Wild Card matchup. There are three-way tiebreakers, four-team playoffs, relevant head-to-head records and a mind-boggling large amount of variables still at play with a day left in the MLB season. But, how the Blue Jays can keep their 2021 playoff hopes alive boils down to two simple requirements:
1) Toronto must beat Baltimore
2) Boston or New York must lose
It seems simple enough, but the Red Sox face a 65-win Washington Nationals squad that has botched two winnable games in the last two days and the Yankees match up against a division-winning Rays team with nothing to play for but ALDS preparation.
If the above two requirements are met, there are plenty of varying 163 scenarios that include the Sox, Yanks, and Mariners (we'll handle that matchup madness if they get there). But, there is no way to keep playing baseball if Toronto can't snatch a W Sunday and get some help.
Relevant Matchups:
Boston LHP Chris Sale vs. Washington RHP Joan Adon
Tampa Bay RHP Michael Wacha vs. New York RHP Jameson Taillon
Both pitching matchups seem to favor the teams Toronto needs to lose, on paper. Righty Wacha owns a 5.26 ERA, compared to Taillon's 4.40, but he's delivered five-plus innings of shutout ball twice against the Yankees this year. In the final game of their season, the Nationals are starting a 23-year-old rookie with four innings above double-A. Adon, owning a 4.97 ERA across three minor league levels this year, gets to match up against seven-time all-star Chris Sale.
The Rays lead their season series 10-7 against the Yankees and the Red Sox have taken their only two games against the Nationals in 2021. Even if Toronto takes care of business against the Orioles, they'll need an upset ahead of them to keep playoff hopes alive. Toronto's Baseball Reference playoff odds sit at 25.9%, but nothing about Sunday will be predictable, in all likelihood.
How Toronto Can Beat Baltimore:
Toronto's duty Sunday starts and ends with beating the Baltimore Orioles. Manager Charlie Montoyo has preached controlling what they can control all season, and the Jays only have nine guaranteed innings of baseball left to control in 2021.
Pitching Road Map:
Toronto LHP Hyun Jin Ryu vs. Baltimore LHP Bruce Zimmermann
Montoyo and Toronto's biggest challenge Sunday, aside from keeping their eyes off the out-of-town scoreboard, is to navigate a potentially treacherous pitching plan.
Hyun Jin Ryu is coming off back-to-back Cy Young finalist seasons and was the Blue Jays ace for all of last year, but there's no denying his struggles of late. Ryu has allowed a 9.2 ERA in his last four starts and has let up a 5.4 ERA to the Orioles in five starts against Baltimore this year.
There is no room for error or ego in Sunday's contest, and Ryu shouldn't have much of a rope if things appear to be heading sideways. Thanks to Toronto's offensive outburst and Alek Manoah's one-hit start on Saturday, however, the Blue Jays have pitching options behind their southpaw.
Certain to be available Sunday are all of Montoyo's top leverage options:
RHP Jordan Romano
RHP Adam Cimber
RHP Trevor Richards
LHP Tim Mayza
Behind the bullpen's core four are RHP Nate Pearson and RHP Julian Merryweather, who could provide an inning of work each if the game heads to extra-innings or swing-and-miss velocity is desperately needed.
With the trusted group of four, which Pearson seems to be on the edge of, Toronto could cover at least four or five innings with Montoyo's willingness to ask for four outs from guys like Cimber and Romano. Ryu will likely still need to give the Blue Jays four innings of work, but there's no reason to leave him out much longer after that with everything on the line.
Robbie Ray and José Berríos could both factor in on short rest (throwing their side sessions in-game, perhaps) but Toronto will need starts from both of them if they're to win a Game 163 and Wild Card that could follow Sunday's matchup. So, leaning on the starters with a clean and rested pen doesn't seem like a plausible move unless chaos reigns on Sunday.
Lineup Prediction:
The offense is the easy part for the Blue Jays on Sunday; show up like the lineup did Saturday and the scoreboard watching can begin early. Facing another left-handed starter in Zimmermann, I'd expect Toronto to roll out a similar lineup:
CF George Springer
2B Marcus Semien
1B Vlad Guerrero Jr.
SS Bo Bichette
RF Teoscar Hernández
DH Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
3B Santiago Espinal
C Danny Jansen
RF Randal Grichuk
With Ryu on the mound and Jansen's bat the hottest on the team right now, the catching position is a lock for Sunday afternoon. The lone question mark in Toronto's 162 lineup is the DH position and the status of Gurriel. The outfielder designated hit in 161, failing to record a hit, as he's still fighting through a hand injury and stitches.
Gurriel was a game-time decision on Saturday, and will likely be treated the same ahead of Toronto's most recent must-win game. If Gurriel is unable to go, Toronto could slot in Alejandro Kirk to face the lefty in Zimmermann or could look to Corey Dickerson. Baltimore's Zimmermann has allowed a .918 OPS to the left side of the platoon and Dickerson has been consistently barreling balls for Toronto in the final weeks of the 2021 season.
Ultimately, the Blue Jays just have to win and hope. The small bullpen decisions and lineup calls could impact Toronto's playoff chances, but hope for more Blue Jay baseball this season comes down to one final victory and some heroic assistance from Tampa Bay or Washington. It's already chaotic, it could get messy, and it may end in despair, but each of Toronto's 161 games so far has mattered, and their final one will too.
