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Why Blue Jays Should Pursue Dominic Smith
The Blue Jays desperately need left-handed hitting. It's been a top priority for the last two offseasons.
With the top free-agent hitters off the board, Toronto will need to do a bit of bargain shopping. Dominic Smith is a reasonable high-upside signing.
Smith, who bats and throws left-handed and can play first base and outfield, had a breakout season with the Mets a couple of years ago. He slashed .299/.366/.571 with 21 home runs in 139 games from 2019 to 2020, emerging as a lineup lock for New York heading into 2021. After that, he crumbled at the plate, slashing .233/.298/.345 over the last two seasons.
The Mets non-tendered the 27-year-old this winter, and he is now a free agent. His stock is low, and the Blue Jays should swoop in. My gut tells me Smith is on the fringes of minor-league-deal territory, but something in the neighborhood of one year, $2 million might be to his liking.
If Toronto scooped up Smith, he wouldn't necessarily be limited to platoon opportunities — his .750 career OPS vs LHP outweighs his .727 OPS vs RHPs — though he'd come with defensive limitations. Frankly put, he's a horrendous outfielder. Smith was worth -10 outs above average (OAA) as a left fielder 2021, prompting the Mets to shift him full-time to first base in 2022, where he produced a pleasant +2 OAA.
The defensive fit isn't great. Still, having Smith's bat as a floating designated hitter option or, better yet, a pinch-hitter for a defensive specialist (Kevin Kiermaier comes to mind) could make his contract worth it.
Smith is especially good at hitting fastballs, which adds to his value as a pinch hitter. Typically, relievers will try to overload pinch hitters with heat. Bat speed doesn't seem to be a problem for Smith, who, even in a down 2022 season, produced a +3 run value versus four-seamers.
Of course, the Blue Jays might cut the deal off and forfeit the salary if the signing doesn't pan out. Smith is a textbook low-risk, high-reward signing that could augment an already potent Toronto batting order.
