Braves Free Agent Targets: Two Pitchers Worth a One-Year Flyer
If the Atlanta Braves plan to wait on getting that top-of-the-rotation arm, they could take a one-year flyer on Frankie Montas or James Paxton.
We've already seen several arms come off the board on one-year deals this offseason.
| Pitcher | Terms | Team |
|---|---|---|
Jack Flaherty | 1 year/$14M | Detroit Tigers |
Luis Severino | 1 year/$13M | New York Mets |
Kyle Gibson | 1 year/$13M | St. Louis Cardinals |
Lance Lynn | 1 year/$11M | St. Louis Cardinals |
Wade Miley | 1 year/$8.5M | Milwaukee Brewers |
Frankie Montas and James Paxton are two other starting pitchers also looking for one-year deals, but for different reasons.
Montas is looking to re-establish himself after missing almost all of last season following Tommy John surgery. The 30-year-old righty did return to throw 3 innings in the minors and 1.1 innings in the big leagues with the Yankees in 2023.
That at least helped him get his feet wet and will hopefully allow him to go into a normal offseason as he gears up for a big 2024.
Over nearly 600 innings in the big leagues, Montas has a 3.90 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 24.2 percent strikeout rate, and 7.8 percent walk rate. Tossing out the 2020 season, which is valid when the results aren't what we want, he's been a 3.50-4.00 ERA type of pitcher. In 2021 with Oakland, he had a 3.37 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 207 strikeouts in 187 innings.
If can show that promise again in 2024 during his age 31 season, he can hope to hit the market next offseason and get a multi-year deal.
The velocity was down a tick last year -- understandable in a short sample coming back from injury. But going back to 2022, he had good whiff rates on his splitter and slider with the splitter being his money pitch.
Montas will hope to regain that velocity and command in 2024, but the question for any team will be how much can he throw after missing most of last year.
He did throw 144.1 innings in 2022, so he's not that far removed from a 27-start season.
As for Paxton, he's just looking to continue his career and get another chance to compete and win.
The 35-year-old lefty missed nearly two years following Tommy John surgery and returned in 2023 to put up decent numbers, with a 4.50 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and just over a strikeout an inning.
He's no longer the guy he was from 2017-19, when he posted low-to-mid 3 ERAs, 1.10 WHIPs, and had a nearly 30 percent strikeout rate. But even last year with the Red Sox he had an xBA of .229 and xERA of 3.77.
His curveball and cutter both had whiff rates over 30 percent in 2023 and the 4-seam fastball averaged 95.2 MPH.
There seems to be some juice left for Paxton, who might be willing to take a one-year deal for less than $10 million to play on a winning team like the Atlanta Braves.
These are moves you would hope the Braves would be making in addition to grabbing a frontline starter. But at the very least, they should grab someone like Montas or Paxton to provide veteran, quality depth to the starting rotation.
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