Previewing Atlanta's bullpen after Dylan Lee returns from injury

The Atlanta Braves have weathered pitching staff injuries as well as any team in baseball this year.

We've written at length about Atlanta's loss of Max Fried and Kyle Wright, and how the Braves have relied on starters Spencer Strider, Charlie Morton, and Bryce Elder to carry the load. Atlanta's done a lot of mixing and matching around those three guys, with twelve traditional starters and three different relievers (Jesse Chavez, Collin McHugh, and Dylan Lee) taking the ball to open at least one game.

But Atlanta's dealt with numerous bullpen injuries as well:

Closer Raisel Iglesias (shoulder) started the season on the injured list, not being activated until May 5th. Setup man AJ Minter (shoulder/pectoral), who filled in for Iglesias as closer, missed some time himself in July. Also missing time has been Collin McHugh (shoulder), Jesse Chavez (shin - still on IL), Lucas Luetge (bicep), Michael Tonkin (neck), Daysbel Hernández (forearm - still on IL), Dylan Lee (shoulder - still on IL) and Nick Anderson (shoulder - still on 60-day IL and probably not returning this season).

And despite all of that, Atlanta's twenty pitchers with relief appearances have combined for a 3.59 ERA and have converted 35/54 save opportunities, allowing only 28% of inherited runners to score, all better than MLB averages.

With news that Dylan Lee completed another rehab appearance at Gwinnett on Sunday and should be returning to the team sometime in the next week, as well as Jesse Chavez playing long toss and expected back by late August (or early September, when the roster expands to 28), it's worth looking at the possible composition of the bullpen.

Bullpen roles

Closer: RHP Raisel Iglesias - 35G: 3-4, 3.58 ERA in 32.2 IP w/ 42Ks/9BBs, 20/22 SVs

Acquired from the Angels in the most lopsided trade in Braves history - Tucker Davidson and Jesse Chavez went back to Anaheim, and by the time three weeks had passed, Chavez had already been released and had re-signed with Atlanta - Iglesias is the unquestioned closer of this bullpen.

Set-up: LHP AJ Minter - 47G: 3-5, 4.78 ERA in 43.1 IP w/ 53Ks/10BBs, 10/13 SVs

The Texas product was a 2nd rounder by Atlanta in 2015 as a true reliever, having been dominant out of the pen in his three seasons at Texas A&M. He raced through Atlanta's system, debuting in 2017 and has been in the back-end of the pen ever since, barring occasional stints in Gwinnett in 2019 & 2021 to work on some mechanical issues.

He was overused early this season while Iglesias was on the IL, including working on consecutive days twelve different times, but after two weeks of medium leverage work, was right back in the back end of the bullpen as the primary 8th inning option for Brian Snitker and pitching coach Rick Kranitz.

Set-up: RHP Joe Jiménez - 41G: 0-3, 2.70 ERA in 40.0 IP w/ 49Ks/12BBs, 0/1 SVs

Atlanta traded away promising 3B/OF Justyn Henry-Malloy to acquire Jiménez last December, and once healthy, he's delivered.

Mid: RHP Kirby Yates - 42G: 5-0, 3.21 ERA in 42.0 IP w/ 54Ks/25BBs, 2/5 SVs

The former Padres and Blue Jays closer, who signed with Atlanta in November of 2021 after missing all of 2021 with Tommy John surgery and a lengthy rehab that took away almost all of his 2022, has come back to form with his trademark splitter. He occasionally gets hit hard, but also strikes out plenty of opposing batters and stepped up during the summer while Minter was temporarily moved to the middle innings.

Mid: RHP Pierce Johnson - 43G (COL): 1-5, 6.00 ERA in 39.0IP w/ 58Ks/25BBs, 13/15 SVs

Mid: LHP Brad Hand - 40G (COL): 3-1, 4.54 ERA in 35.2 IP w/ 41Ks/16BBs

The two former Rockies relievers, acquired by Atlanta in July (Johnson) and August (Hand), have not allowed any runs in their combined seven appearances as Braves.

Mid: RHP Collin McHugh - 35G: 4-1, 3.74 ERA in 45.2 IP w/ 32Ks/17BBs, 0/1 SVs

McHugh, in year two with the team after leaving Tampa Bay, hasn't been as effective this season as he's dealt with injuries and been used in longer outings than previous seasons. He has a $6M club option for 2024 with a $1M buyout, and it's not clear if Atlanta would exercise that option at this point, given his results this season.

Long relief: RHP Michael Tonkin - 28G: 5-2, 3.20 ERA in 56.1IP w/ 49Ks/12BBs, 1/3 SVs

The "Honky Tonk Man", as our own Will Moon affectionately calls him, has quietly been one of the more effective relievers for Atlanta this season. His 6'7 frame helps his fastball play up from its league-average velocity (93 MPH), and his slider gets an above-average amount of chase. He's in the top 7% of the league in weighted On-Base Percentage at only .255, which adjusts on-base percentage for how a player reaches base in an effort to pin down what the pitcher can control (unintentional walks, homeruns, HBP) from what a pitcher can't control (intentional walks, etc).

Potential issues

The only reliever in the bullpen with a minor league option is AJ Minter, who is seen as too valuable to send down. When Lee returns this week, (if he's restored to the active roster - he does have two options) Atlanta's going to need to make a decision on one of the existing guys unless someone is "suddenly" dealing with shoulder soreness and needs a short IL stint to get right. I'd expect Chavez to not be back until rosters expand in September and each team can carry an additional reliever.

Matchups

Once Lee returns from this week's rehab assignments, Atlanta will have three lefties in the pen and won't need to preserve Minter for specific matchups. Lee and Minter have both shown the ability to deal with hitters of both handedness. Hand's more of a matchup guy as a lefty specialist - his 2023 numbers against lefties (.160/.288/.220) are significantly better than what he's done against righties (.329/.384/.600), and Atlanta's going to do everything they can to shield Hand from facing too many right-handers.

Having former closers in the pen has been useful for Atlanta this season, as manager Brian Snitker is sometimes rigid in his usage and almost always holds Raisel Iglesias for the 9th inning. If Atlanta's facing three straight save situations, the third outing may end up seeing Kirby Yates (59 career saves) , Brad Hand (131 career saves), or Joe Jiménez (20 career saves) out there in the 9th to seal the victory for the Braves.

The true question is: does this bullpen have what it takes to recreate "The Night Shift" dominance in the 2021 postseason? While they're lacking the rehabbing Tyler Matzek, this bullpen has everything from strikeout artists to double-play inducers and should be well-rounded and deep enough to pick up the slack behind Atlanta's starters.

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