Braves Briefing: College football reminds us of the role of luck in the outcome of a game

Rivalry weekend for college football is in the books, and we saw some expected results: #1 Georgia beat Georgia Tech, #4 Florida State beat Florida, and #12 Ole Miss beat Mississippi State in Thursday's Egg Bowl.

#8 Alabama beat Auburn, as expected, but you're missing a lot of important context if you just give the 24-21 score.

Alabama converted a 4th and 36 with under 30 seconds for the go-ahead touchdown it what was shaping up to be a stunning upset. Auburn, 6-5 entering the game, had been beaten by three touchdowns by New Mexico State the previous week, but absolutely thrashed Arkansas the week before.

Alabama, meanwhile, was Alabama - full of five stars and confidence, with their only blemish an early-season close loss to 11-1 Texas.

But it was Auburn who led for most of the 2nd half, because of luck. And Auburn who ultimately lost (despite a 99.9% chance to win before the 4th and 36 play) because of luck. A punt returner falls down, a cornerback slips while trying to cover Isaiah Bond, and there's the luck working against you - the whims of a small sample size.

For the record, we don't mean luck as in "the ball happened to bounce your way". We mean luck as in "anything can happen in a shortened sample", especially between two teams that, quite literally, can't stand each other.

Braves fans are right to be frustrated by how this season ended - a 2nd-straight NLDS elimination to the Philadelphia Phillies.

But as this weekend showed us, no sport's immune to the whims of a small sample size and a fired-up opponent. Every single one of those games cited above, with the exception of the 10-point Ole Miss victory, were single score margins - even Georgia Tech taking on #1 Georgia, the reigning two-time National Champion, was a 31-24 final score.

The goal for Alex Anthopoulos and company should be to design a team that can get to the postseason every single season, because all bets are off in October - the more chances you have to win a championship, the more opportunities you have for the luck to bounce your way consistently through the postseason.

Would you rather be the 1990s Atlanta Braves, who made the postseason every season of the decade and picked up five pennants, giving themselves multiple chances at a championship (which they won in 1995)?

Or the 2000s-era Boston Red Sox, who won championships in both 2004 and 2007, but also missed the postseason entirely in 2006 & 2010-2012?

How long until pitchers and catchers report?

78 days. Atlanta's expected to ask pitchers and catchers to report on Monday, February 12th, in advance of their first spring training game on February 24th against the Tampa Bay Rays. An official announcement of the reporting date will come in January.

Here's the odds for the top 10 teams to win the 2024 World Series according to FanDuel

Atlanta Braves - +600
Los Angeles Dodgers - +700
Texas Rangers - +850
Houston Astros - +850
Philadelphia Phillies - +1000
New York Yankees - +1400
Tampa Bay Rays - +1500
Toronto Blue Jays - +1500
Baltimore Orioles - +1500
Minnesota Twins - +1800
Seattle Mariners - +1800

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